Guizhou Moutai (600519): The average ton price of heavy volume increased significantly in mid-late June
Comment event: Guizhou Moutai leaders said in the Product Merchants Association that the amount of Moutai liquor in 2019 was about 3 substitutes, which ended on June 12 and had been put into use.2 for the first time, the first half will ensure 1.4 Initial dosage. First, increase the divergence of Moutai to meet some existing demand, but the long-term supply shortage will continue. According to reports, it can be measured that the divergence of Moutai will reach 2000 tons in mid-late June, with an average daily exceeding 100 tons.Based on the amount of preliminary plans initially developed3.According to the 18 budget calculation, the average daily planned volume in 2019 is 无锡桑拿网 about 87 tons; with the correct calculation based on the latest caliber of about 3, the average daily planned volume in 2019 is about 82 tons.The sudden heavy volume in the off-season, the contraction is related to the slow pace of previous releases, but also to alleviate the current situation of “a bottle is hard to find” and high terminal prices. The average delivery volume of 2,000 tons reaches all dealers, directly-operated stores and specialty stores, and each sales unit is less than half a ton, corresponding to 177 boxes, which is enough to meet some existing needs.In our judgment, long-term funding is sought, and the situation of high prices at the hands of consumers has continued. Second, the actual shipment volume of Moutai in the first half of the year increased, but lower than the long-term market optimistic 四川耍耍网 expectations followed in the first half of this year1.The actual shipment volume of 4W tons of Moutai liquor has increased by a single digit every year in the same period of last year, but corresponding to the revenue recognized in the statement in the first half of the year, the sales volume of Moutai liquor has slightly changed.Following the guidelines of “more than half the time and more than half the tasks” and the sales rhythm disclosed at the annual shareholder meeting, the market competition has formed a more optimistic expectation, 1.The 4W ton was slightly lower than expected. In our judgment, it should mainly be caused by the continuous replacement of more than 6,000 tons recovered by some confiscated dealers for normal delivery, which resulted in improved sales progress. Third, the average ton price in the second and second quarters is expected to increase again. The change in product structure and non-standard price increases is mainly due to the fact that the “more than half of the tasks” stated in the annual shareholders’ meeting refers to the calculation of half of the revenue in 2018 or the 2019 revenue indicator (sameIncreased by 14%), it can be deduced that the average ton price in the second quarter alone is higher than the level in the first quarter.The overall average ton price of Moutai wine has increased significantly. We judge that this is related to the short-term changes in the product structure during the reform of the marketing system and the non-standard product price increase last year. Fourth, profit forecast At present, the company’s statement revenue in the second quarter alone is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, product structure and average ton price increase, profitability is enhanced, and net profit flexibility is better.Looking back, due to the low base value before the report in the third and third quarters, it is expected that revenue and profit growth will be better. Initially, before the Group’s marketing company’s sales plan is finally released, we still maintain the same judgment of “volume increase, price increase, and high profit growth”, and continue to be optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term development. Taking into account the company’s business plan and growth logic, we predict that the company’s revenue growth rate in 2019-2021 will be 15%, 13%, and 14%, and the net profit growth rate will be 27%, 16%, and 16%, corresponding to EPS.35 years old 52, 41.32, 47.94 yuan. We temporarily maintain 2019 EPS 35.52 is unchanged.Without considering the supplementary price increase of Pfeiffer, we predict that the company’s revenue will increase by 13% and net profit will increase by 16% in 2020.If Pfeiffer raises its price next year, it will definitely continue to increase its growth rate next year. Taking into account the rationality and continuity of pricing, we price the company at a reasonable estimate of 2020, which is 25 times PE, with a target price of 1030 yuan, corresponding to 29 times PE in 2019. Risk reminder: The short-term exit of QFII and Kitakami funds may be the company’s biggest negative, and the proceeds of its sales are problems encountered in the sales of Maotai, the rapid growth of revenue and profits, or overseas financial fluctuations, and tight fundsContinue to withdraw.Other fundamentals are difficult to constitute an adverse impact on the company.
Guizhou Moutai (600519): The average ton price of heavy volume increased significantly in mid-late June
High-Energy Environment (603588): Waste incineration project with performance in line with expectations smoothly progressed
Event: The company released a 19-year performance forecast, and it is expected that net profit attributable to mothers will reach 40,000 in 2019.0 million to 43,000.One million yuan, an annual increase of 23% to 32%, and the net profit of non-attributed mothers will further increase by 26% to 36% each year. Investment points: The performance is in line with expectations. The company’s performance is in line with expectations.86-1.1.6 billion yuan, with a median value of 1.01 trillion, a half-year increase of about 22% in a single quarter, continuing the rapid growth momentum.The company’s main business development is in good condition. During the year, it implemented engineering orders in hand, smoothly promoted the construction of domestic waste incineration power generation projects, confirmed revenue and realized profit growth. The total investment income in 2019 can also increase, and the 2019 performance indicators have beenConsider the impact of goodwill impairment. The waste incineration project is gradually put into operation, and the cash flow is expected to continue to improve the company’s on-hand waste incineration project at 8,800 tons / day. In the second quarter of 19, the Hezhou project was put into operation. In the fourth quarter, the Hetian project and the Yueyang project were 杭州夜网 put into operation. The company’s current total operating project has reached 3900.Tons / day (including the Shunyi project), the project is gradually put into operation to provide operating cash flow.Net cash flow from operating activities in the first three quarters.US $ 5.3 billion, an annual increase of 142%, and a significant improvement in cash flow.The company’s waste incineration project is expected to be gradually put into operation, and the cash flow is expected to continue to improve. There are plenty of orders in hand, and the company’s supplementary order amount for the first three quarters of maintaining the “recommended” rating is 24.2.6 billion yuan, of which 18 are engineering contract orders.3.4 billion, an annual increase of 32%, the end of September the company’s in-hand orders totaled 125.8.2 billion, of which 38 have ended.3.9 billion yuan, 87 profitable.4.3 billion US dollars, ample orders to ensure the release of future performance.It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 20-21 will be 5 respectively.3.2 billion, 6.9.5 billion yuan, corresponding to PE of 13x and 10x respectively, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk reminder policy is weaker than expected; project advancement is lower than expected; hazardous waste profit is lower than expected; goodwill is impaired.
Thematic report on the selection of the new third board (18): Tree Industry Environmental Protection (430462): Environmental protection “film mage” stand on the high value-added functional film vent
Report summary: The company’s investment in research and development, product structure optimization and upgrading: the company mainly includes film business and packaging business, the film business is biaxially stretched 重庆耍耍网 polyester film (BOPET) industry, and the packaging business is mainly environmental protection bags and express bags.
In recent years, the company has improved its R & D investment and gradually focused on high value-added functional films.
As of June 2019, the company has 50 authorized invention patents.
Relying on the domestic leading environmental protection and energy saving technology and huge investment, the company has expanded to an expanding research and development force, integrating existing technical expertise, conducting continuous and in-depth research on the recycling of waste plastics, and successfully developing a polyester waste”Recycling process technology is placed in the domestic blank, and the technical level is internationally leading.
The supply and demand of the polyester film industry has improved, and the industry’s production capacity is expected to be released in the third and fourth quarters: in 2018, the volume and price of polyester films are rising, and the industry’s business cycle is upward.
Affected by the rising price of raw material PTA, the price of polyester film immediately rose.
As of June 21, 2019, the previous PTA production was 82.
33, the highest domestic PTA profit due to the increase in internal disk spot growth and cost-side PX prices have risen.
In 2018, the price of BOPET12μ film was 12,256 yuan / ton, and the average average price in 2017 was 9,237 yuan / ton, a significant increase; the latest price in June was about 10,900.
Future performance growth points: “Film-to-membrane” is completed, and functional thin-film projects are developing steadily: “Film-to-membrane” project is the core business segment of the company’s strategic transformation.
The “film-to-membrane” recycling project with a construction period of 3 years and an investment of about USD 500 million was put into trial production on February 4, 2019.
“Membrane-to-membrane” recycling scale production line The machine in the workshop is operating well, with an estimated annual output of about 5.
At the same time, the company is actively promoting the construction of “optical-grade BOPET film production line projects” to further enhance its R & D and innovation capabilities.
After the project is completed, the company will realize the independent development of optical-grade films, further enrich the company’s functional film product matrix, optimize the product structure, and become a new profit growth point for the company’s performance development.
Risk reminder: Polyester film industry downturn risk, project operation risk, risk of loss of technical staff
CUHK (600704) Interim Review: Focusing on the 深圳桑拿网 development of “one body and two wings” for integrated supply chain services
Event: The company recently released its 2019 Interim Report and achieved 1601 operating income.
1.8 billion, an annual increase of 22.
39%; net profit attributable to mother 16.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 28 in ten years.
74%, an increase of 1 per year.
49 shares; total assets at the end of the period 964.
91 trillion, an earlier increase of 12.
13%; net assets attributable to the parent at the end of the period 243.
7.3 billion, an increase of 2 from the beginning of the year.
12%; EPS is 0.
3318 yuan / share.
Leader in the supply chain integrated services industry, with multiple fields of business moving forward.
In the first half of the year, the operating income of the supply chain integrated services segment was 1,521.
27 ppm, an increase of 20 in ten years.
52%, accounting for 95% of the group’s operating income and 45% of profit.
Among them, iron and steel, iron ore, coal, chemical and other four major means of production, the core varieties of production scale are ranked in the top three in the country, and the automotive service business ranks eighth in the comprehensive strength among the national automobile dealer groups.
Take root in the real economy and coordinate industrial development.
In the first half of the year, the company paid more attention to investment in industrial projects and provided “hard support” for advance development.
Deqing Cable Intelligent Manufacturing Industry Base, a particularly important industrial project, has completed an investment of more than 100 million yuan.
The three furnaces and two units of the first phase project of Pujiang Thermal Power Plant under the product and environmental energy are all completed and put into operation. The completion and acceptance of Tongxiang Tai Aisi has been completed. The first phase of Xinjia Aisi’s centralized air supply project is progressing as scheduled.
Wuyuan Qiaosi Automobile Intelligent New Retail Project was launched. The Tongxiang 20 Warehouse Wastewater Treatment Project and Dongyang Nanma Wastewater Treatment Project commenced as scheduled, and the Shanghai Xujing Project completed price increases.
The coordinated development of the two platforms doubled the performance of the financial services business.
The company builds two supporting platforms: a smart supply chain logistics system and a unique supply chain financial system.
The intelligent supply chain logistics system uses the subsidiary’s product flow as the carrier, and uses the Internet of Things technology to transfer terminal data to the big data center to achieve monitoring and realize a full range of Internet of Things effects, reduce the supply chain integration service cost, and improve profitability.
The company utilizes credit advantages and capital advantages, leverages spot-end industrial advantages and futures-end experience and technology, and uses blockchain technology to successfully explore the “credit currency” mechanism in the upstream and downstream of the supply chain to create a unique supply chain financial system.
In the first half of the year, the operating income of the financial services segment was 38.
79 trillion, an increase of 254 in ten years.
The controlling shareholder completed the increase in shareholding and the refinancing was approved.
From November 29, 2018 杭州桑拿 to May 28, 2019, the state-owned company, the company’s controlling shareholder, gradually increased its shareholding in the company by 1500.
10 million shares, accounting for 0 of the company’s total share capital.
3483%, this share increase plan has expired and has been implemented.
In addition, the company 38.
The 1.5 billion euro refinancing plan was approved by the CSRC on July 16.
Investment suggestion: The company has developed steadily and is a leader in the domestic supply chain integrated services industry.
Supply chain industry development policy support is strong, the industry concentration is strong, the company’s development prospects are expected.
Give “overweight” rating. Risk warning: the refinancing progress is not as expected; the risk of market fluctuations; the macroeconomic downturn.
Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” Is Approaching
Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” is approaching in the warning sound of as many as amazing woods, the first “Grey Rhino” in the financial market in 2019 is breaking free of London’s magnificent Westminster Parliament Building, Knocked over Britain and rushed to the EU.
Thoroughly all signals in this world indicate that the Brexit agreement could not be voted in the House of Commons on the evening of January 15. For the Theresa May government, all the worst possibilities cannot be ruled out; for business and the market, waiting forHope is close to disillusionment, and can only bravely face the uncertainties and uncontrollable Brexit shocks.
Chairman of the Global Internet Governance Council (GCIG), Swedish politician Carl Bildt (Carl Bildt) ridiculed Britain, which once led the world, “can’t even lead itself now,” but he acknowledged that the EU still has trouble-some peopleThe support of traditional mainstream political parties has decreased, and EU governance is becoming more and more challenging. What is more serious is that the economic growth of European countries seems to be just the opposite.
The latest data released by the European Bureau of Statistics at 10:00 local time on January 14th surprisingly dropped the chin: industrial production in the euro zone fell sharply, and industrial production fell by 1 in November 2018.
7%, down by 3 per year.
This is the biggest drop in the data since February 2016 and worse than expected.
On the same day, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also issued its latest assessment, warning that growth in most major economies is taking place.
In the next 6 to 9 months, the United States, Germany, Canada, Italy, and the euro area will increase the growth momentum, with France and the United Kingdom having the largest declines.
Britain: The “bitter battle” of Brexit has not been achieved. Externally, it has been even considered that once the Brexit agreement is rejected, the most likely result will be a “hard Brexit” without agreement.
Tuesday will be the most tense moment in British politics.
The opposition Labor ‘s current strategy is to seek compulsory elections, and if Labor wins, it will re-negotiate a new Brexit deal in Brussels.
Labour MPs have been told to be ready, and once Tuesday ‘s vote on the Brexit deal is rejected, party leader Jeremy Corbyn can immediately ask for a no-confidence vote on the prime minister.
Political observers expect Labor to have a hard time winning, because if Teresa May ‘s Brexit deal is rejected, the ruling coalition ‘s DUP has said it will support the Conservatives to renegotiate the Brexit deal.
If the vote passes, the DUP threatens to abandon a cooperation agreement with the government, causing the Conservatives to lose most of the parliament.
Another possibility is that if the Prime Minister’s high-level failure in the vote is caused by a large number of Conservative Party representatives, she may immediately face a conflict asking her to decline. If only a few members of the party vote against it, the most likely result is a re-antique ballot.
From a firm Brexit point of view, no deal would give Britain a huge advantage-it would allow Britain to negotiate and sign trade agreements immediately outside Europe, while at the same time allowing the government to cut taxes to make Britain more competitiveforce.
”In the long run, the EU has far more problems on the horizon than we do,” said British columnist Quentin Letts. “Europe should worry more about its future.
“EU: There will be big changes in the year of the election. Unlike many outsiders predict, Brexit is not the biggest challenge facing the EU in 2019.
When temporarily asked about this at a forum, an anonymous EU diplomat ranked the immigration crisis first, Italy second, and third was Brexit.
The European Parliament elections in May are top priorities in Europe, and the number one factor in shaping the direction of elections is immigration.
In most parts of Europe, restrictions on immigration have replaced the future occupation of the euro in the minds of most voters.
On the European continent, as many as one-quarter of voters now support populist parties, Europe suspects that sending unprecedented grounds is welcomed, and active populist party leaders are gearing up.
The four-term Californian Prime Minister Orban Viktor and the Italian Prime Minister ‘s most sought-after Deputy Prime Minister, Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, previously announced a joint effort to build an anti-austerity and anti-immigrationThe populist coalition aims to seize at least a seat in the European Parliament in Europe.
On Sunday, populist parties in France and Germany also launched their own candidates for European Parliament elections.
Marine Le Pen, a leader of the well-known populist party, renamed from the National Front, announced that the focus of this election was to defeat President Emmanuel Macron.
She believes that her party will benefit from the effect of the “Yellow Vest Movement” in its large interests.
Dominique Moisi, a senior consultant at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, believes that part of the cause of the yellow vest movement was Macron’s fault.
He has been counting on stronger economic growth to justify him while undertaking radical but necessary reforms, but the growth has gradually come to fruition, which has made it impossible for middle- and lower-class people to accept ecologically justified fuel taxes.
In order to save the hearts of the people, Macron issued an open letter on January 14 and launched a two-month “national debate” inviting citizens to express their opinions. The content of the debate includes: How much should be reduced?
Cut some spending as a priority?
How to make people more inclusive in managing the country?
“I intend to turn your anger into a solution.
“The French presidential election.
But for the European Parliament elections with only four months left, all corrective measures are probably too late.
Zaki La, a professor of international relations at the Politecnico de Paris?
Di analysis believes that the European Parliament in the last general election was very close to being pushed by extremist parties (who won 46% of the votes). In the 2019 election, only 45% of the seats are expected to belong to the establishment.
Japan: Japan-US negotiations and aging crisis Japanese Prime Minister Abe has just visited the UK last week, urging the British to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Britain absorbed 40% of Japan’s accumulated investment in the EU.
About 1,000 Japanese companies operate in the UK and employ 150,000 people locally.
Traditionally, the UK has always been regarded as the main gateway for European companies by Japanese companies. Many Japanese companies have their European headquarters in the UK and are now stepping up their preparations for moving to the European continent.
Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, applied for the establishment of a new subsidiary in Amsterdam as early as 2017, and has transferred its main corporate and retail banking operations to the Dutch capital.
Japanese companies that moved their headquarters to the Netherlands also include Panasonic, Nomura and Yamato Bank.
Because of the uncertainty caused by Brexit, Hitachi is also considering cancelling a planned ￡ 16 billion nuclear power plant in Wales.
Japan’s economic cooperation agreement (EPA) with the European Union will enter into force next month, making Japan’s economic ties with the European Union closer.
However, Japanese entrepreneurs worry that the new trade talks between Japan and the United States this year may fail, which will cause the government to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars and damage the country’s export-dependent economy.
Depending on exports, it will be more difficult for governments in developing countries to increase domestic demand. In order to cope with the aging society, Japan ‘s established fiscal policy is to raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10%.
Japan is the country with the highest proportion of the elderly aged 65 and over in the world, accounting for 20% of those aged 70 and above.
In 2018, the country’s population growth rate reached a record low, only 1.
43, far below the 2 needed to maintain the population.
Japan’s current economic growth has continued for more 杭州夜生活网 than six years and is considered to be the second longest economic expansion cycle since World War II. The business community is not optimistic about whether this round of economic expansion can continue in 2019.
Beijing New Building Materials (000786): Completion improves, superimposed structure optimizes demand growth, and mid- to high-end product prices remain flat month-on-month
Investment Highlights: Event: Beijian Building Materials released the third quarter report for 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 98 in the first three quarters.
1.7 billion, an increase of 3 every year.
2%; net profit attributable to mothers is 10.84 million yuan, a decrease of 100 per year.
53%; net profit after deduction to mother 18.
42 trillion, down 7 a year.
Among them, non-recurring gains and losses, the US gypsum board matters settlement fees, lawyers’ fees and other costs totaled 19.
Single quarter revenue of 37 in the third quarter.
79 trillion, with an increase of 7.
21%, net profit attributable to mother 6.
810,000 yuan, down 8.
57%, net profit after deduction to mother 7.
44 trillion, down 0.
The company released a 19-year performance forecast, which is expected to achieve incremental net profit 3?
500 million, down 81 a year.
83%, preliminary estimates of net profit in Q4 20193.
61 ppm, an increase of -26 in ten years.
Opinion: The continued warming of completion has driven the growth rate of gypsum board demand in the third quarter, and we estimate that the overall growth rate of gypsum board sales of North Building Materials is 5%.
Middle-to-high-end demand for high-level composite structure upgrade, the overall price of Dragon and Taishan Gypsum remained flat, and the price of low-end products (Dream) improved.
In the third and third quarters alone, gross profit margin increased by 1.
2% to 36.
At 7%, we think it is mainly due to the increase in sales and cost.
It is worth noting that, thanks to the consumption upgrade and the improvement of brand awareness, Dragon brand sales continued to maintain a high growth (over 10%).
We believe that the continued recovery of subsequent completed projects will steadily increase the demand for gypsum boards. The differentiated brand competition model adopted by the company will also jointly promote the steady increase of city share and stable profitability.
杭州夜网论坛 The expense ratio during the single third quarter was 13.
1%, an increase of 2 per year.
89%, sales, management, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.
Selling expenses increased substantially by 171%, mainly due to the company and its subsidiaries’ transportation expenses, advertising and exhibition expenses increased, and the company’s greater emphasis on brand building and actively expanding B-side business.
Finance costs increase by 47 per year.
5%, mainly due to the increase in the company’s expense of additional expenses and increased exchange loss losses.
Investment suggestion: Main business of gypsum board: market share under high concentration will further increase space + products continue to be high-end 1)[amount: gradual and steady growth of the industry + 重庆耍耍网 company’s global production capacity layout + market share increase]The final gypsum board production capacity isAt 2.7 billion flats, we will continue to promote the layout of gypsum board capacity through overseas investment (global 5 billion gypsum board capacity plan).
The market share in 2018 is close to 60%. Through environmental protection to eliminate backward production capacity, the company integrates its production capacity, brand and marketing advantages, and the market share is expected to increase further.
2)[Price: enhanced pricing power + increased mid- to high-end share]The company focuses on brand building and actively expands mid-to-high-end customers. With consumption upgrades and customer brand awareness, the company’s mid-to-high-end product share will continue to increase steadily.
At the same time, the company seized the hardcover trend and accelerated the penetration of high-end products.
3)[Cost: Self-owned cover paper + advanced desulfurization gypsum layout + advanced technology, etc.]The company’s forward-looking desulfurization gypsum layout builds a moat, and the acquisition cost is low and stable; the own production capacity of the cover paper reduces paper price volatility.
Channels cooperate to expand the keel business and acquire Sichuan Shuyang to cut into the field of waterproofing, which further opens up room for growth.
The company vigorously promotes the sales of keel, strengthens the synergy with existing channels, and the revenue of 2019H will increase by more than 40%. The elimination of small keel factories through environmental protection, consumption upgrades and company channel expansion are expected to open a window of revenue growth.
As one of the company’s main development industries in the future, waterproof materials have broad industry demands and there is still room for expansion and concentration. For central enterprises with large cash flows, they can make a difference.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for the years 19, 20 and 21 will be 4.
900 million, PE is 74, 12, 11 times.
The company’s medium-term market share and pricing power upgrade trend remain unchanged. Brand building and product structure upgrades are expected. Demand growth potential still exists, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the demand of downstream industries has fallen sharply; the price of gypsum board has fallen sharply; overseas expansion has fallen short of expectations; the development of keel business has fallen short of expectations; the development of the waterproofing sector has fallen short of expectations.
Praco (603566): Poultry seedlings are expected to continue high growth, optimistic about R & D and innovative enterprises
Brief evaluation of performance The company released the report for the third quarter of 2019, and the company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 20194.
7.1 billion, an annual increase of 9.
28%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.
950,000 yuan, an increase of -20 in ten years.
17%; of which the net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter was approximately 0.
The business analysis was affected by the non-epidemic situation. The company ‘s poultry seedlings and chemical drugs grew rapidly, and pig seedlings declined. Under the influence of the epidemic, the company ‘s revenue was stable and increased.
28%, in terms of business, the revenue of poultry vaccines and antibodies in the first three quarters was 2.
11 million yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.
17%, the revenue of the chemical medicine sector was 1.
590,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.
44%, technology license or transfer business income was 17.62 million yuan, an annual increase of 37.
01%, the income of pig vaccine was 7475.
460,000 yuan, an increase of -46 in ten years.
93%; the company achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.
950,000 yuan, an increase of -20 in ten years.
17%, deducting non-net profit increased by -19 in ten years.
60%, mainly due to the decline in sales of high-margin product pig vaccines affected by downstream demand. Secondly, the company expanded research and development technology cooperation, and the research and development costs 杭州桑拿 increased by 44.
Poultry seedling business is expected to continue high growth; benefiting from tight supply, the poultry industry has entered a boom cycle, and at the same time, the substitution effect brought by the non-plague epidemic has greatly lengthened the boom cycle; the company’s product upgrades are fast, the technology is advanced, and the core products are new.The new tributary genetically engineered seedlings ushered in high sales growth, followed by abundant product reserves. A series of genetically engineered products such as chicken Newcastle disease (genotype) and chicken infectious rhinitis are expected to be approved for marketing in the next few years, and continue to be maintained in the poultry market.Directional lead.
Optimistic about the company’s high R & D investment for multi-product conversion: The company is one of the few companies with independent R & D capabilities in the veterinary drug industry. The company’s R & D investment accounted for 14 in the first half of 2019.
21%, ranking first in the industry; in the third quarter, the company newly obtained a number of new veterinary medicine certificates for swine vaccines: the first domestic swine circovirus type 2 and Haemophilus parasuis inactivated vaccine (SH strain +4 type)JS strain + ZJ strain 5), the first domestic one-shot aqueous adjuvant vaccine Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae pneumoniae inactivated vaccine (HN0613 strain), swine atrophic rhinitis inactivated vaccine (HN8 strain + rPMT-N protein + rPMT-C protein), Breakthrough in research and development capabilities, the company currently uses its advanced genetically engineered vaccine research and development technology platform to fully support the development of non-pest vaccine, and is expected to expand its wide product matrix through its research and development platform in the future.
Investment suggestion: The company has high R & D investment + multi-product layout. The EPS for 2019-2021 is 0.
61 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 45/38/33 times, given a “buy” rating.
Risks suggest fluctuations in the downstream aquaculture industry, risks of epidemics, risks of new product sales falling short of expectations and increased market competition, risks of changes in government bidding and procurement policies, and risks of brain drain.
Zhongtai Securities: Short-term evasion in two areas with limited index adjustment (with gold shares)
For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!
Sources of Zhongtai Securities ‘February industry views and key recommended targets: Zhongtai Securities’ February configuration view: Fearless impact, calmly review: Our view in January is that the wind is continuing, and we should follow the trend and think that the market will continue in DecemberThe return of risk appetite. In January, the market performance was extremely differentiated. Technology and hardware, new energy, and media sectors continued to be strong and strong. The market hotspots concentrated on a small number of stocks. In the last few trading days before the holiday, the Wuhan pneumonia epidemicAs a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by more than half of its gains since the current rebound and fell below 3000 points again. Correlative industries such as tourism, catering, media, and transportation dropped the most, while pharmaceuticals, technology, and banks were relatively resilient.
Our January gold stocks portfolio recorded a 7.
81% increase, clearly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index10.
08%, since the establishment of the China-Thailand gold stocks portfolio in February 2017, the portfolio has gradually gained 90%.
02%, the excess return relative to CSI 300 is 71.
84% of the better performing gold stocks in January was Jacques Technology (43.
88%), Yi Jiahe (21.
38%), Zhifei creatures (20.
00%) and so on.
The epidemic is still continuing, and short-term shocks are inevitable, but the index adjustment space is limited.
At present, the most eye-catching market focus is the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Too many people compare it with SARS in 2003. We believe that the current market structure, variable status, and macroeconomic and policy environment mean that the mean is clearly SARS.The industry performance during the SARS period is of little significance in the current market, but the real guiding significance is the emotional response characteristics of the global capital markets during the fermentation of the epidemic.
In fact, after all the tail risks occur, the real impact on the market is very short-lived. Emotional venting can often be completed within a few trading days, and the core variable that subsequently affects the market is whether the event will significantly affect future profits.Expect whether it will completely destroy the operating logic before the market.
And experience tells us that the logic of megatrend upwards is often not reversed by short-term factors.
Recently, the World Health Organization and the World Health Organization have listed the new coronavirus epidemic as an international public health emergency. We believe that although the terms such as delivery and trade restrictions are better than market expectations, the epidemic ‘s impact on the domestic economyThe impact will eventually be inevitable, and the gradual hedging demand may not be fully reflected.
According to our questionnaire, most investors believe that the maximum impact of the epidemic on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index after the holiday is between -5% and -10%. We believe that the actual adjustment of the index may be smaller, and we should be more optimistic in the short term.Be more cautious in the medium and long term.
After the adjustment of the first few trading days of the festival, the current median PE estimate of the entire market is 27 times, which is already in the bottom of history, and the market’s most pessimistic end of the year, the estimated level is also about 24 times.Look, we think that the probability of a large-scale adjustment of the index is small, and the risk of individual stocks should be paid more attention to.
In terms of configuration in February, it is recommended to avoid short-term risks and focus more on long-term logic.
There are two main concerns in the short-term market. One is the change in the epidemic situation, such as the growth rate of newly diagnosed cases; the other is the policy hedging tool, when it will be introduced, and how much effort will be made.
For the former, experts have different views, and according to the estimated inflection point of the epidemic, we recommend to pay attention to two aspects, one is to avoid short-term emotional trading risks, and the other is to observe the mid- and long-term impact of the epidemic on macroeconomics and corporate profits,The hedging effort on the policy side.
In the short term, we recommend focusing on avoiding two aspects. The first is the stocks that have been most affected by the epidemic, such as the sectors that have suffered short-term consumption shocks (catering, tourism, transportation, film and television, retail, etc.), listed companies in Hubei Province, etc.It is the proportion of financing purchases and stocks with relatively high equity pledges. Leveraged funds often represent the highest risk appetite in the market. If the market panic degree exceeds expectations, this type of target risk is the largest.
Correspondingly, you can temporarily pay attention to thematic investment opportunities that benefit from the fermentation of the epidemic, such as companies that produce masks, medical supplies, antiviral drugs and other products, as well as non-contact business models such as gaming, online consumption, and remote collaboration.
From the perspective of defense, you can appropriately lean towards high dividends and quarterly results.
In the medium and long term, the epidemic may produce 南宁桑拿 some more far-reaching enlightenment on a large scale. First, awareness of health will be improved from top to bottom. Second, the lifestyle and social system brought about by epidemic prevention and control.The re-understanding of China’s economy will also become the epitome of China’s economic transformation.
Overall, no matter when the epidemic is over, no matter when policy breakouts occur, industry trends in the fields of hard technology, new energy and new consumption will continue. We maintain our judgment that the A-share market ‘s industry-driven strength is stronger than the macro-driven nature in 2020., It is recommended to actively grasp the buying opportunities brought by short-term adjustments.
February Gold Shares Portfolio: From top to bottom, combined with our monthly portfolio of various industries,上海夜网论坛 the February 2019 recommendations of Zhongtai Securities’ gold shares are as follows: Wanfu Bio, China Merchants Bank, Vanke A, Shandong Gold, Jebsen Stock, Jiuyuan Yinhai, Tenglong, Liande Equipment, AVIC, GEM 50ETF.
Risk reminder: monthly research opinions and key recommendation targets are based on the judgment of the fundamentals and profitability of each industry group in the next month. The final recommendation of each industry has its economic and policy formulation. There may be economic and policy expectations that are absolutely absolute.Case.
Fuyao Glass (600660) Semi-annual Report Comment: Overseas Revenue Proportion Increases the Power of Aluminum Trim Business
Key points of investment: The company announced its 2019 semi-annual report and achieved operating income of 102 in 1H19.900 million, an annual increase of 2.0%; net profit attributable to mother 15.1ppm, a ten-year increase of -19.4%; budget benefit 0.6 yuan. Ping An’s view: Due to the downward impact of the domestic automobile market, the company’s gross profit margin has improved: affected by changes in the sales volume of the Chinese automobile market, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for its main business in the first half of 2019 was 37.2%, a decrease of 4 per year.Five averages, net profit attributable to mother is 15.1 ‰, a decrease of 19 per year.4%, 14 after recovering exchange gains.7 ‰, a decrease of 18 per year.4%.Auto glass operating income 92.1 ‰, the average ten years.9%, gross margin is 34.5%, down by 1 every year.23 units.Float glass gross margin is 34.6%, sixth grade.5 single; the cost of float glass has increased in ten years.8%, it may be due to the increase in inventory at the end of 2018, leading to a decrease in output in the first half of 2019.It is expected that the automobile industry may pick up in the second half of the year, which will improve the company’s profitability. The product structure is upgraded, and the advantages are expected to continue: the company’s proportion of high value-added products such as heat insulation, sound insulation, head-up display and resurfacing continues to increase, an increase of 1 compared with the same period in 2018.The 67 singles continue to develop through the trend of automotive glass integration, and the company’s proportion of high value-added products continues to increase. Overseas business is progressing steadily, and the US factory is developing rapidly: the company’s overseas business accounted for 48 in the first half of 2019.26%, an increase of 9 per year.61 units.US factory revenue was 19.100 million, an increase of 13 in ten years.7%, net profit is 14.800 million, increasing by 16 杭州桑拿网 every year.4%.Fuyao supplies US brands such as GM and Ford outside the United States, and has also entered the supply chain systems of Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda. It will gradually increase its revenue scale and market share in the future. The aluminum trim business has begun to exert its strength: in the first half of 2019, other business income was 700 million, compared with 0 in the same period in 2018.700 million U.S. dollars, with an estimated 700 million U.S. dollars in China Aluminum Trim ‘s revenue of about 600 million U.S. dollars, reflecting the performance of Fuyao ‘s integration of SAM. In the future, it will further integrate the resources of Sanfeng Group and Tongliao Fine Aluminum to improve the industrial chain and enable the aluminum trim businessBecome a new growth point for the company. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.Based on the Chinese automotive glass business, the company copied its core advantages to overseas markets and the new automotive aluminum trim field. It is optimistic about increasing its market share in the United States. It is recommended to pay attention to the business progress of aluminum trim.Maintaining the performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 36.700 million, 43.9 ppm and 47.500 million, corresponding to 15 respectively.5, 13.0 and 12.0 times, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk warning: 1) The growth rate of the automobile industry is lower than expected: If the sales volume of the automobile industry continues to decline, it will affect the company’s profitability.2) Exchange rate fluctuations: The company has more than 40% of its revenue from overseas, and exchange rate fluctuations will have a transmission effect on the company’s profits.3) Price fluctuations of upstream raw materials: The main raw materials of automobile glass such as soda ash, PVB, etc., if the price rises, it will put pressure on the company’s costs.4) Sino-US trade war: Automotive glass belongs to the 250 billion tax increase list. If the Sino-US trade war continues or intensifies, it will affect the company’s profitability.5) Aluminum bar penetration rate is lower than expected: If the cost reduction of aluminum bar is small and the penetration rate in the luxury car segment is lower than expected, it will affect the company’s operating income.
Plum Bio (600873): The monosodium glutamate industry is still bottoming out
Investment Highlights: The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20198.
55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.
The company announced that it achieved revenue of 108 in the first three quarters of 2019.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
15%; net profit attributable to mother 8.
55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.
23%; EPS0 achieved.
28 yuan / share.
Among them, 3Q2019 achieved revenue of 38.
22 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.
88%; net profit attributable to mothers1.
910,000 yuan, an average of 26 in ten years.
The MSG industry is still booming, and the price spread has increased significantly over the years.
According to the price data of Zhuo Chuang Information we track, the average MSG price of the company’s main products in the first three quarters of 2019 was 8,508 yuan / ton, an increase of 15% over the same period of last year, 7,392 yuan / ton; the average price difference was 4,817 yuan / ton,Significant quarterly growth of 25%.
The reported company’s umami (glutamic acid, sodium glutamate, nucleotides) gradually realized operating income44.
8.9 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of total revenue.
The amino acid industry is still at the bottom.
In total, the price gap between the company ‘s main products, lysine and threonine, 北京夜网 is still falling, and the industry is still in the process of bottoming out.
According to the price data of Zhuochuang Information we tracked, the average sales price of lysine in the first three quarters of 2019 was 7213 yuan / ton, which replaced 13% compared with the same period of the previous year; the average price of lysine sales price was 2292 yuan / ton, which was higher thanThe annual interest rate is 36%.
During the same period, the average selling price of threonine was 7,517 yuan / ton, which was an alternating 17% year-on-year; the average selling price was 1,366 yuan / ton, 56% year-on-year.
The gross profit margin increased, and the expense ratio decreased slightly during the period.
Affected by the drop in amino acid prices, the company’s reported gross profit margin may be 23.
43%, compared with the 南京夜网 same period last year 1.
During the same period, period expenses were 13.
77%, a slight decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.
The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are 7 respectively.
89% and 2.
12%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.
02 averages, down by 0.
14 averages and a decrease of 0.
Profit forecast and estimation interval.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.
54 yuan / share, combined with estimates from comparable companies, prudently give 15-18 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.
02 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating.
The price of MSG dropped, the price of amino acids continued to drop, and the operating rate of lysine dropped.