Guizhou Moutai (600519): The average ton price of heavy volume increased significantly in mid-late June

Guizhou Moutai (600519): The average ton price of heavy volume increased significantly in mid-late June
Comment event: Guizhou Moutai leaders said in the Product Merchants Association that the amount of Moutai liquor in 2019 was about 3 substitutes, which ended on June 12 and had been put into use.2 for the first time, the first half will ensure 1.4 Initial dosage. First, increase the divergence of Moutai to meet some existing demand, but the long-term supply shortage will continue. According to reports, it can be measured that the divergence of Moutai will reach 2000 tons in mid-late June, with an average daily exceeding 100 tons.Based on the amount of preliminary plans initially developed3.According to the 18 budget calculation, the average daily planned volume in 2019 is 无锡桑拿网 about 87 tons; with the correct calculation based on the latest caliber of about 3, the average daily planned volume in 2019 is about 82 tons.The sudden heavy volume in the off-season, the contraction is related to the slow pace of previous releases, but also to alleviate the current situation of “a bottle is hard to find” and high terminal prices. The average delivery volume of 2,000 tons reaches all dealers, directly-operated stores and specialty stores, and each sales unit is less than half a ton, corresponding to 177 boxes, which is enough to meet some existing needs.In our judgment, long-term funding is sought, and the situation of high prices at the hands of consumers has continued. Second, the actual shipment volume of Moutai in the first half of the year increased, but lower than the long-term market optimistic 四川耍耍网 expectations followed in the first half of this year1.The actual shipment volume of 4W tons of Moutai liquor has increased by a single digit every year in the same period of last year, but corresponding to the revenue recognized in the statement in the first half of the year, the sales volume of Moutai liquor has slightly changed.Following the guidelines of “more than half the time and more than half the tasks” and the sales rhythm disclosed at the annual shareholder meeting, the market competition has formed a more optimistic expectation, 1.The 4W ton was slightly lower than expected. In our judgment, it should mainly be caused by the continuous replacement of more than 6,000 tons recovered by some confiscated dealers for normal delivery, which resulted in improved sales progress. Third, the average ton price in the second and second quarters is expected to increase again. The change in product structure and non-standard price increases is mainly due to the fact that the “more than half of the tasks” stated in the annual shareholders’ meeting refers to the calculation of half of the revenue in 2018 or the 2019 revenue indicator (sameIncreased by 14%), it can be deduced that the average ton price in the second quarter alone is higher than the level in the first quarter.The overall average ton price of Moutai wine has increased significantly. We judge that this is related to the short-term changes in the product structure during the reform of the marketing system and the non-standard product price increase last year. Fourth, profit forecast At present, the company’s statement revenue in the second quarter alone is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth, product structure and average ton price increase, profitability is enhanced, and net profit flexibility is better.Looking back, due to the low base value before the report in the third and third quarters, it is expected that revenue and profit growth will be better. Initially, before the Group’s marketing company’s sales plan is finally released, we still maintain the same judgment of “volume increase, price increase, and high profit growth”, and continue to be optimistic about the company’s medium and long-term development. Taking into account the company’s business plan and growth logic, we predict that the company’s revenue growth rate in 2019-2021 will be 15%, 13%, and 14%, and the net profit growth rate will be 27%, 16%, and 16%, corresponding to EPS.35 years old 52, 41.32, 47.94 yuan. We temporarily maintain 2019 EPS 35.52 is unchanged.Without considering the supplementary price increase of Pfeiffer, we predict that the company’s revenue will increase by 13% and net profit will increase by 16% in 2020.If Pfeiffer raises its price next year, it will definitely continue to increase its growth rate next year. Taking into account the rationality and continuity of pricing, we price the company at a reasonable estimate of 2020, which is 25 times PE, with a target price of 1030 yuan, corresponding to 29 times PE in 2019. Risk reminder: The short-term exit of QFII and Kitakami funds may be the company’s biggest negative, and the proceeds of its sales are problems encountered in the sales of Maotai, the rapid growth of revenue and profits, or overseas financial fluctuations, and tight fundsContinue to withdraw.Other fundamentals are difficult to constitute an adverse impact on the company.

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