Liu Shangxi: China should carry out a reform that matches the great changes and shocks
After the domestic epidemic was effectively controlled, several local governments issued consumption vouchers in an effort to stimulate consumption and stimulate the economy.How to treat the role of consumer vouchers and how to stabilize consumption?Sauna Night Network interviewed Liu Shangxi, Dean of the China Academy of Fiscal Sciences around these issues.”The role of consumer vouchers is short-lived, and their role in stimulating consumption cannot be overestimated.Various measures can be taken to stimulate consumption.For example, by helping people in difficulty to stabilize consumption.However, it is more important to drive residents ‘private consumption based on public consumption and weaken residents’ preventive motivation to increase savings.”Liu Shangxi said.Recently, many people have suggested direct payment of subsidies to help those in need.How to help the poor to stabilize consumption?Liu Shangxi said that he is not against the direct payment of subsidies, but opposed the payment of money without a goal and without distinction.”You can’t use the” copter to spread money “to send money. You can use the current social security system to accurately identify the money of the rescued object. This method of sending money is more effective.”” Different from the generally accepted view that steady consumption stimulates the economy, there are also views that the government should expand employment by stimulating infrastructure investment to stimulate the economy.Under the current budget, should the Chinese economy bear consumption or investment?As such, Liu Shangxi believes that both consumption and investment are important to the Chinese economy.However, if there are obstacles to institutional mechanisms, neither can play an effective role in the economic cycle.More importantly, it is necessary to reform and break through the mechanism and system in which both play a better role.Among them, the most important thing at present is to stimulate market investment confidence and endogenous power by improving the business environment.Liu Shangxi further increased, “There is no panacea for the Chinese economy in the world ‘s great changes. The way out is to come up with a reform that matches the world ‘s great changes and the impact of the epidemic, so that its major system can be fully demonstrated.Advantage, grasp the initiative of sustainable development at a turning point in world history.From a historical point of view, the Roosevelt New Deal of the United States during the Great Depression in the contemporary world can carry out a reform, turn crisis into opportunity, and transform the impact of the epidemic into an endogenous driving force for reform.”The role of consumption vouchers is to drive public consumption with public consumption at one time.” Sauna Nightnet: To stimulate consumption, many local governments issue consumption vouchers.How do you assess the role of consumer coupons?Liu Shangxi: Now that the epidemic has just been effectively controlled, some local governments hope to release consumption vouchers to stimulate consumption. This way will indeed play a certain role, but this effect will be very short-because ordinary vouchers have time limitsSome coupons must be used within a week, and expire expired.And after consumers use the coupons, it is difficult to determine whether they will continue to maintain a strong shopping desire.Therefore, consumption vouchers are only one-time actions on residents’ consumption, and their role in stimulating consumption cannot be overestimated.Moreover, it is necessary to prevent the “bulging effect”, especially the purchase of daily consumer goods. There is more inventory at home, and there will be fewer purchases in the future until the inventory is digested.Sauna Night Net: Some people believe that the key to stabilizing the economy is to stabilize consumption.How to boost consumption?Liu Shangxi: First, to help the poor, this is a measure to stabilize consumption.Second, consumption vouchers can also encourage consumption to a certain extent, but their effect is one-off.The third and more important measure is to drive public consumption with public consumption.Recently, there has been an increase in savings.This is because under the impact of the epidemic, uncertainty and public risks have risen, and the preventive promotion of residents has increased. If this trend continues, it will lead to further shrinkage of consumption.Therefore, we have to consider how to weaken residents ‘preventive motives and increase residents’ consumption by expanding public consumption.Public consumption is divided into two major blocks: One is to maintain government-operated consumption, such as redistributed employee salaries, purchased goods and services, and improve the government’s digital intelligence level, etc. These expenditures belong to the government’s own consumption expenditures.The second is public services for consumption by members of society, such as kindergarten, compulsory education, vocational education, higher education, vocational training, medical treatment, health knowledge popularization, epidemic prevention, medical examination, parks, museums, public rental housing, pension, relief and socialPublic order and so on.The government can provide public consumption directly, such as parks, schools, hospitals, public rental housing, etc., or indirectly through the purchase of services, such as education, medical, public health, training, etc., can be purchased from the market or societyThe service is then provided to the general public for consumption, that is, the government pays for it and the public consumes it.Issuing consumer vouchers, training vouchers, education vouchers, platform service coupons, etc. are also ways to provide public services.It is also possible to provide public service consumption through the government and social capital cooperation model.Public consumption promotes social equality, and can also reduce residents’ preventive motivation, that is, residents’ sense of stability and certainty in the future are improved, and residents’ current consumption can be expanded.The provision of public consumption is inseparable from the construction of public facilities such as schools, medical institutions, data centers, parks, etc. This means that expanding public consumption will also drive public investment or private investment through government procurement.Central cities, urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas have a lot of room for improvement in terms of public consumption. From the perspective of more than 200 million migrant workers who work and live in cities, they do not enjoy the same city replacement, and their public consumption in education, training, medical care, etc.Is seriously inadequate.However, due to institutional reasons, local public city governments are generally less motivated to provide public consumption to migrant workers.In addition, from the perspective of the economist, consumption depends on two aspects of support: income, desirable products and services.In order to expand consumption and increase, residents’ income must increase, reorganization, and high-quality supply in the market must increase.The domestic consumption structure is upgrading, residents have a strong ability to shop overseas, and the consumption outflow is continuously expanding, becoming the world’s major consumer of luxury goods.However, domestic supply lags behind the pace of upgrading the consumption structure. Even daily consumption items such as pots, kitchen knives, and milk powder can be purchased from foreign countries for middle income.Now that the overseas epidemic has led to shrinking imports, can we find a way to convert this part of overseas purchasing power into domestic purchasing power?The key to this is to improve the quality of supply. If there is no high-quality supply, residents will not consume if they have money.If there are agreeable products and services, some consumer demand of residents can only be potential, and it is difficult to turn it into reality.”I’m against giving money to all people without distinction” Sauna Yewang: In the recent Chinese economics community, there is a lot of talk about direct payment of subsidies, including the trapped people within the unemployed.Should China follow the example of sending money abroad to its citizens?Liu Shangxi: We can’t just see the appearance of sending money abroad. We think that if we send money abroad, we should also follow the example.Of course, I am not against disbursement of money, but against blind, untargeted, indiscriminate disbursement of money.When discussing this issue, we must first clarify a question-what is the goal of making money?Regardless of the United States or Japan, these countries have a clear goal of giving money to the people: to fight the epidemic.In order to effectively control the epidemic, the government requires residents to be isolated at home and to reduce outings.But many families abroad have low savings rates, and many families may become paralyzed once they lose their jobs.If the government does not pay money to subsidize the people, many people will refuse isolation and insist on going out to work to make money.Therefore, in order to implement an effective isolation policy and protect the basic social order, so that residents can stay at home in peace and stability, the government supplements to ensure people’s basic daily lives and stabilize people’s hearts.Now too many people in China advocate giving money, what is the goal?It should be to help the unemployed and the low-income people affected by the epidemic.Before bailing out, we need to figure out: what is the current scale of unemployment, what is the living condition of the unemployed, who should be bailed out, and how the bailout is done by the government-is it by means of “helicopter money” or more precise and effectivethe way?I don’t think it’s possible to use the “helicopter money” method to send money in order to pay it.A more feasible method is to use the current social security system to accurately identify the relief target: first, to make good use of the unemployment relief mechanism in cities, urban unemployed residents can receive unemployment benefits.Second, make good use of existing poverty alleviation mechanisms in rural areas.Due to the impact of the epidemic, many migrant workers are temporarily unemployed and can only stay at home.These people do not participate in unemployment insurance and cannot receive unemployment benefits. Will they become poor households?It is necessary to use the mechanism of poverty alleviation to accurately identify some people in need of assistance, divide the migrant workers in need of assistance into areas such as minimum living security and poverty, and guarantee the basic life of this part of the unemployed.It is important to note that under the impact of the epidemic, poor households who have previously lifted out of poverty may return to poverty, and they must pay special attention to this group of people.These two ways of assistance are also to send money, but the way to send money is more accurate and effective.From the perspective of financial affordability, under the current situation where the “three guarantees” at the grass-roots level are already very difficult, we cannot afford to “spread money from helicopters.”Who doesn’t like more money?The general public wants the government to send money, but the money should help the society to be fair and keep the bottom line, that is, to protect the basic livelihood of the people.Spreading money beyond “basic” will result in unsustainable finances.Sauna Night Net: The best relief is still to secure employment and increase employment opportunities. How to achieve this goal?Liu Shangxi: From the perspective of job security, employment positions can be divided into two categories: one is the enterprise ‘s job position, and it is necessary to minimize the collapse of the enterprise and keep the existing job position; the other is the non-enterprise job position, such asSelf-employment and flexible employment of individual industrial and commercial households.Under the epidemic, tens of millions of individual industrial and commercial households have been greatly affected, and they must have precise policy support.For example, whether it is possible to extend the loans of individual industrial and commercial households, to reduce or exempt part of the loan interest rate, or to supplement the financial part.This is more important than tax relief, because tax relief is mainly an incentive policy, not a rescue policy.For the unemployed, the college students who are about to graduate must create more employment opportunities.College students can be encouraged to start their own businesses through self-employment.This requires the government to provide training and guidance for entrepreneurship, and provide policy support in entrepreneurship loans and capital.Fundamentally, it is also necessary to ensure employment by improving the business environment.The problems of inequality and long-term hidden discrimination of private enterprises in market competition have not been completely solved so far.Under the epidemic situation, improving the business environment is probably a more important and urgent issue.This is because, only when the business environment improves will everyone have the idea of investing and starting a business, thereby driving employment.In recent years, the reform of deregulation and service has greatly improved the business environment, but under the impact of the epidemic, higher demands have been put forward.The fundamental method of ensuring employment is to improve expectations, take the crowd route, and form a benign incentive to the market.”Accelerate the reform of institutional mechanisms to allow market investment to participate in the investment of public services.” Sauna Yewang: Unlike the view of solid ownership, there are views that under the current trend, infrastructure investment should be used to expand employment and stimulate the economy.What do you think?Liu Shangxi: First of all, government investment is not optional, and some necessary infrastructure projects have to be taken, but government investment may not be able to expand jobs and stimulate demand, thereby stimulating the economy.There are many uncertainties, and many conditions need to be met. When the relevant conditions do not exist, it is difficult for government investment to achieve the expected goals.Judging from the current conditions, it may be difficult for infrastructure investment to play the same role as it did in 2008 and 2009.To stimulate the economy and expand employment through traditional infrastructure investment, this effect will be reduced, because the space for traditional infrastructure investment becomes smaller and its multiplier effect is greatly reduced.The effect of the “Four Trillion” plan in 2008 was remarkable, and the “scale effect” of the policy played a huge role in boosting market confidence at the time.In this regard, it is currently embeddable.But the path of government investment is now difficult to continue.Second, the Politburo meeting was held in March to accelerate the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks and data centers.The new infrastructure has high technical content, fast update and inheritance, and application scenario driven. Based on these characteristics, the government cannot replace the market.New infrastructure investment mainly depends on the market, not the government.What the government should do is plan, guide and provide policy incentives.In fact, unless it is an old infrastructure such as the “Tie Gongji”, there is almost no market participation, the key is to use the construction model.Traditional theory believes that public infrastructure is a public welfare project, which can only be invested by the government, and the market will not participate.This theory is out of date, and the practice of government and social capital cooperation has long broken the popular theory in the past.If we implement the “project portfolio”, or implement the “developmental government-society cooperation (PPP)” model, or implement asset securitization, it can be solved through model innovation. There are already many successful cases in reality.It is necessary to change traditional concepts, give full play to the power of social capital, and allow the government and the market to form synergy.The formation of synergy between the government and the market is precisely an important institutional advantage of the country.The central government has always been an expert in allowing social capital to enter public service areas such as pension, education, and medical care. However, in reality, it is difficult for social capital to enter these public service areas due to various restrictions.Now there is a phenomenon that after the scale of local government special debts has expanded, too much social capital has been squeezed out.The purpose of government investment was originally to promote market investment (or private investment). Now, instead of stimulating it, it is left to fight alone.China’s economy has reached 100 trillion yuan, and the local government’s special debt of several trillion yuan alone is difficult to pry. It still depends on the power of private investment.Under the conditions of the epidemic, speeding up the reform of institutional mechanisms and allowing market investment to participate in public service investment is a necessary condition for determining the effectiveness of macro policies.”Don’t discuss abstractly whether China’s economy depends on consumption or investment to solve the problem of a better function between the two.” Sauna Yewang: For the current Chinese economy, should we rely on investment or consumption to promote?Liu Shangxi: I think consumption and investment are both important to the Chinese economy. Do not abstractly discuss whether the modern Chinese economy should be driven by consumption or investment.If there are problems with the institutional mechanisms, neither of them will be able to function effectively.The important thing is to solve the problem of the contradiction between the two, and to speed up the reform of the mechanism and system.The current unprecedented impact also requires unprecedented reforms to match.For example, what is currently important is to stimulate confidence and motivation in market investment, but the business environment has both new and old problems.Before the outbreak, private enterprises lacked confidence and private investment growth was weak.Under the epidemic situation, the business environment has new problems.For example, in the process of resuming production, in some places, private enterprises have to go through layers of approval before resuming production. This reveals the habitual intervention of some local governments and their departments, and they are unwilling to give up their power easily.Under the epidemic situation, improving the business environment becomes more important and urgent, because only after the business environment is fundamentally improved, the confidence of private enterprises naturally rises, and private investment will also increase, employment, income, consumption,Investment will form a cycle by itself, and it is no longer necessary to struggle with whether to rely on consumption or rely on investment to stimulate economic growth.We should take this opportunity to work hard to optimize the business environment, fundamentally boost market confidence, and solve the problem of weak market investment.To stimulate confidence and momentum in market investment, we must also accelerate the reform of state-owned enterprises and accelerate the transition to “capital management.”Once great progress has been made in the reform of state-owned enterprises and state-owned assets, there is more room for private investment to participate.”If you really make up your mind to reform, reform can be effective immediately.” Sauna Night Net: Compared to stimulus policies, is reform a slow variable?Liu Shangxi: It is wrong to think that reform is a slow variable.To deal with the current severe expectations, in the eyes of many people, it is first necessary to rely on stimulus policies, as if reform is difficult to reach the blue sky, it is necessary to take it slowly.There are also views that the reform has entered the deep water zone, and many problems cannot be solved at once.If you don’t want to really reform, there are 10,000 reasons.If we are really determined to reform, reform can be effective immediately.Reform is not a matter of the future, nor is it a slow variable, or a matter of determination for self-revolution.We must eliminate this cognitive misunderstanding.The central government has been reforming and promoting reforms by developers, but it seems that it is like punching a fist on cotton, which has been resolved by various hidden injustices and inactions.In this regard, reform has indeed become more difficult.We can also observe and understand reform from history.During the Great Depression of the 1930s, US President Roosevelt adopted a series of drastic reform measures and issued the “Emergency Banking Act”, “National Industrial Renaissance Act”, “Agricultural Adjustment Act”, “Social Security Act”The bill substantially adjusts the relationship between the government and the market, the relationship between the federal government and the local government, and the relationship between the government and society, etc., to eliminate the obstacles that have always led to economic crises and hindered economic development.The reason why the United States can rise after World War II is inseparable from the large-scale institutional innovations promoted by the Roosevelt New Deal in the crisis.It can even be said that the institutional dividend of Roosevelt’s New Deal has continued until now.So, now, Roosevelt’s New Deal has introduced so many reform measures in a short period of time. Are those reforms slow or fast?Obviously, reform can be a fast variable.There is no silver bullet for China ‘s economy in the face of the world ‘s great changes, and it can no longer rely on some small and fragmented policies to solve this problem. The way out for China ‘s economy is to match the world ‘s major changes and the impact of the epidemicReform.This ability fully demonstrates the significant institutional advantages and grasps the initiative for progressive development at a turning point in world history.From a historical point of view, the Roosevelt New Deal in the contemporary world economic depression can accelerate the pace of institutional innovation, and transform the impact of the epidemic into an endogenous driving force for reform.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Intern Zhao Fangyuan Editor Chen Li Proofreading Liu Baoqing
Liu Shangxi: China should carry out a reform that matches the great changes and shocks
[Do you eat tomato aphrodisiac]_Tomato_Shenyang Aphrodisiac_Tomato
I believe that everyone must have eaten tomatoes in normal times. In some people’s opinion, the main role of tomatoes is to supplement trace elements and vitamins, and they have no other effects, but in fact tomatoes can be aphrodisiac.It can also prevent prostate cancer and prostate diseases, and it is helpful for men’s sperm.
Tomatoes are really good for men, they can prevent prostate cancer, they can also improve sperm concentration and vitality, and they can strengthen sperm into “super sperm”.
However, people mistakenly equated sperm quality and production capacity with “aphrodisiac”, and it is believed that eating tomatoes can “aphrodisiac”, so tomatoes become magical.
[推荐：研究称西红柿汤提高男性生育力] 吕伯东指出，有些食物所含的微量元素和生物活性，可强精益气、提高精液质量、增强精子活力。However, it should be noted that it is good for sperm, but not for aphrodisiac, and the quality of sperm and sexual ability are also two different things. Therefore, tomato “aphrodisiac” is equivalent to being far-fetched.
[Recommended: It’s not reliable to eat watermelon “Aphrodisiac”?
]Similarly, many so-called “aphrodisiac foods”, such as fur seal kidney, bullwhip, deer whip, sparrow, male moth, etc., and some nutritional products such as human milk, cow milk, royal jelly, etc., almost none of these foods directly strengthen the reproductive organs.Role.
Moreover, in the long-term, a large number of blindly taken, the concentration of hormones in the blood will increase, but “feedback inhibition” will occur, and the plasma pills will stop producing hormones, leading to increased disease.
[Recommendation: Five kinds of food impotence are not credible]”Aphrodisiac” is a treatment method for the onset of kidney deficiency in traditional Chinese medicine. Lu Bodong reminds everyone that healthy people should not blindly “Aphrodisiac”, let alone listen to those false advertisements.And how to “Aphrodisiac” need to be performed under the guidance of a specialist.
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Blackstone’s top ten predictions for 2019: the Shanghai Index will rise 25% and the forecast success rate will exceed 50%
The Shanghai Composite Index will rise 25%, and gold will fall below 1,000 yuan!Blackstone’s top ten predictions for 2019 have come, and the accuracy rate reached last year. On January 3, China Fund News Amman East Time, Byron Wayne (Byron Wayne), vice chairman of Blackstone and well-known Wall Street prophet, released the top ten predictions for 2019 (“10 surprises”). Byron predicts that in 2019, the Federal Reserve has not raised interest rates, the Shanghai Composite Index will increase by 25%, gold will fall below 1,000 US dollars / above, and the United Kingdom will not leave the European Union. Since Byron Wayne first released the “Top Ten Prophecies of the Year” in 1986, he insisted that at the beginning of each year, the practice of pointing out the top ten predictions has been adhered to for 33 years. The success rate of predictions has often exceeded 50%, but in recent years it has deteriorated. The top ten predictions for 2016 are basically street-beating, and at most two have become reality.Even Byron Wayne couldn’t help but ridicule himself when he released the 2017 Top Ten Predictions. Everything had happened exactly as I predicted, and it turned out to be on stage, and everything changed. Therefore, when the Black Swan comes, even the veteran Wall Street analysts’ predictions will hit the streets, not to mention those young brokers in China identify them? So what does Byron think of 2019? Byron Wayne: Top 10 predictions for 2019 According to the fund’s verification, Byron Wayne’s 2018 top 10 predictions are as accurate as 40%, but all predictions related to China have been beaten (this part of the hitThe rate is similar to that of domestic broker judges). The following are the full contents of Byron Wayne’s top ten predictions for 2019: First, the global economy is weak in 2019, and it has gradually moved towards the Federal Reserve. There has been no interest rate hike, and it has gradually moderated. The 10-year US bond yield has remained at 3.Below 5%. Second, the S & P 500 Index will increase by 15% in 2019. The reorganization is due to the Fed’s absence of vertical interest rate increases. The reorganization benefited from the sharp decline in US stocks at the end of 2018.The market will experience several rebounds and contractions, but the improvement in earnings will cause the stock market to rise in a moderately favorable interest rate environment. Third, traditional GDP growth drivers have only a modest contribution to capital expenditure and real estate in 2019, but the economy continues to expand due to consumption and government spending.Possible alternatives to recession before 2021. Fourth, the tone of the financial market has changed and investment in precious metals has been suppressed.When US stocks and other global stock markets improve, gold will fall below $ 1,000 / above. Fifth, investors are more interested in emerging markets.This is mainly due to the proportion of developed markets and historical levels, the price-earnings ratio of emerging markets is attractive, and the profit outlook is more clear.The middle class in emerging markets continues to grow, contributing a lot of consumer spending to corporate profits.Among them, China is a leader in emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise 25%, and the Brazilian stock market will continue to recover. Sixth, March 29, 2019 is a special day but also an ordinary day of the year. Britain will not leave the EU on this day.One of the resolutions was approved by Congress, with Theresa May still in office, and she argued that changes in leadership would not help.Britain will hold a second referendum on antiques, with the result that it will remain in the euro zone. Seven, the US dollar has not changed much in 2019, and it is expected that it will maintain the level at the end of 2018.Because of concerns about economic development, the Fed has stopped raising interest rates and stopped shrinking its balance sheet.The rate of overseas capital inflows into the United States has slowed because multiple loose monetary policies and business expansion are not sufficiently demanding of new funds. Eighth, the investigation of Special Prosecutor Mueller of the “Tong Russia Gate” incident concluded that members closest to the president would be charged by the judiciary, but the evidence does not support any direct action against him.However, sometimes the mass departure of the most trusted advisers has led to a crisis of confidence that the public is worried about the government’s ability to achieve important goals. Nine, the Democratic Party ‘s majority vote in the US Congress has achieved more than expected, especially in terms of trade policy, and in protecting important parts of the Affordable Care Act and immigration policy.The federal infrastructure plan to be implemented in 2020 will be announced in 2019. X. Growth stocks will remain committed to establishing the US stock market, and technology stocks and biotechnology stocks will also perform well with continued strong earnings.As the economy has progressed, value stocks other than energy stocks have been disappointing. As in previous years, Byron Wien offers several replacements: first, geopolitical tensions will escalate.Iran may re-ignite the Middle East situation, and North Korea may not make good progress on the nuclear issue.At that time, US Secretary of State Pompeo and National Security Adviser Bolton issued a statement saying that the United States might take pre-emptive actions in these two places, resulting in sharp sell-offs in several markets.But despite rhetoric, the United States will not go to war with any country near the 2020 elections.However, previous tough talk on issues such as trade may lead to the success of the United States in national security diplomatic negotiations. First, China may launch ambitious infrastructure projects. Third, as the United States continues to challenge free trade regulations, China is more compliant with the rules of free trade.The United States has further isolated itself. Fourth, the European Central Bank was forced to restart temporary easing in response to provocations from Italy, weak German economy and Brexit.Italian legislation, which can break all fiscal rules without having to worry about EU penalties, and Brexit defeats expectations of greater unity among the remaining EU members.The Italian economy closed its baseline. During the recession, debt spreads soared, and Europe was gradually forced to release water again. The top ten predictions for 2018 with a 40% accuracy rate After experiencing the top ten predictions in 2017 again, the tenacious Byron Wayne still presented his 2018 top ten predictions in early 2018. Obviously, the hit rate has improved a lot this time. Byron Wayne’s top ten predictions for 2018 (the red font indicates that the predictions are correct and accurate): North Korea will stop nuclear tests but will not abandon existing nuclear weapons. Actual: On April 21, 2018, the content of the resolution passed by the third plenary session of the Seventh Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea included that North Korea will suspend nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile launch tests from that date;In nature, North Korea will abandon the northern nuclear test site.As long as North Korea is absolutely free of nuclear threats, North Korea will never use nuclear weapons or interfere with nuclear weapons and nuclear technology. Populism, tribalism and anarchy will spread all over the world.In the UK, Jeremy Kobe will be the next prime minister; Catalonia, Spain, will remain volatile; Brexit will make the continent more united, and economic growth will increase. Actual: Theresa Mary May, the current Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.Brexit negotiations are fraught with difficulties.German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she was not seeking re-election, and the EU’s future was bleak. Third, the dollar is finally resurrected.The actual growth rate of the US economy will exceed 3%. Coupled with supplementary stimulus policies, investors will reignite their interest in dollar-denominated assets, and the euro will fall to 1 against the dollar.10, the dollar fell to 120 against the dollar.The repatriation of US funds across companies overseas will also boost the dollar. Actual: In the third quarter of 2018, the US GDP growth rate has been announced-according to the data adjusted in the prescribed quarter, the actual GDP growth rate in the United States in the third quarter was 2.7%, the annualized growth rate is 3.5%. Fourth, the US economy is stronger than 2017.The S & P 500 index will decrease by 10% and will drop to 2,300 points. However, as corporate profits continue to improve and economic growth accelerates to 4%, the index will return to more than 3,000 at the end of the year. Actual: The S & P 500 has a 10% growth rate, with a minimum closing of 2346.58.However, it is an indisputable fact that the US economy is strong. WTI crude oil prices have risen above $ 80 a barrel.Mainly benefited from the continuous recovery of the global economy and unexpected demand from developing markets, coupled with weak production, reduced inventory, and favorable factors such as OPEC production cuts. Actual: WTI crude oil prices hit 76 during the year.It’s $ 39, but it has fallen below $ 50. Inflation has become a worrying issue.Continued global economic 无锡夜网 growth will put increasing pressure on commodity prices, and tight labor markets in industrialized countries will stimulate wage growth.In the United States, average hourly wage growth will approach 4% and CPI will reach 3% or more. Actual: US data shows that the CPI is basically at 1.Near 9%. As inflation rises, interest rates start to rise.In 2018, the Fed raised its short-term interest rate four times, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 4%. However, due to concerns about the impact on financial markets, the Fed can only shrink its balance sheet mildly.High yield spreads will widen, causing losses to the stock market. Actual: The Federal Reserve raised interest rates four times in 2018. Although the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Iranian nuclear agreement have been continuously cracked down, 青岛夜网 they will be retained.Because if the North American Free Trade Agreement is ended, it will lead to a large number of job losses in the United States, and US allies generally support the Iran nuclear deal.As China ‘s influence around the world rises, alternatives will begin to replace. It is a mistake not to sign the TPP, and he will promote more alternative trade with Asia. Actual: TPP exited again. Republicans will lose control of the Senate and House of Representatives in the November midterm elections.Numerous promises made during the progress of the presidential election cashing in to the presidential election have been frustrated, while the endless stream of tweets will also stimulate an increasing number of alternative responses.The midterm elections will turn into a referendum that decides whether the presidency can be retained. Reality: The midterm elections received much attention, and the Republican Party lost the House of Representatives and only won the Senate. 10. China will focus on credit issues, restrict commercial lending, and slow the economy. Actual: China’s economy is decelerating, and the “de-leveraging” policy in the first half of the year has been transformed into a “stabilizing leverage” policy. In addition, Byron R. Wien said there are five other major incidents and the potential to become the top ten accidents. First, the profitability of European corporate companies has been recognized by investors. The growth of the Far East and emerging markets has shifted relative to the US market, and the institutional global portfolio has a wider scope. Second, artificial intelligence will gain significant momentum. The work of legal and financial experts, fast food restaurants and healthcare industry employees will be automated. Third, cyber attacks will be more serious and will hurt consumer confidence to a certain extent.The security systems of enterprises and financial institutions need to be upgraded. Fourth, European and American regulators began to pay attention to the disruption of the layout of the Internet business model. Due to the pressure from retailers and traditional media, they will conduct anti-competitive investigations on Amazon, Facebook and Google.Supervisory authorities have begun to take actions to limit transactions, etc. As Byron said, I just expressed my inner thoughts and provided them for discussion. As for the accuracy rate, everyone will pass by with a smile ~~~
Hisense Home Appliances (000921): Expectations of Household Air Conditioners Lead to Estimates Decline
Company’s recent situation The price competition in the air-conditioning industry has intensified, triggering market growth.
Comment on the increasing competition in the domestic air-conditioning market: 1) In February 2019, the United States took the lead in reducing prices, 3Q19 Gree, and Haier followed suit.
During the “Double Eleven” period, Gree’s price cuts exceeded market expectations.
2) Hisense was forced to respond to Gree’s high price cuts.
The company grants 300 yuan / Taiwan subsidy to the products affected by the industry price war during the “Double Eleven” period.
Second- and third-tier brands are in a weak position in the industry price war: 1) Although air conditioners are a duopoly market, there will also be price wars when demand continues to break. For example, in March 2015, the industry significantly reduced prices and entered a highly competitive destocking stage.
2) In the 2015 air-conditioning price war, second- and third-tier brands were unable to fight.
In 2015, Hisense’s home air conditioner business exceeded 1.
3) 1 in 2019?
Affected by the first-tier leading price reduction promotions in October, the company’s offline retail sales decreased by 1%.
As a result of the company’s strategy of protecting profits, the household air-conditioning business in 1H19 saw a 8% decrease in revenue and a profit of 3%.
1.4 南宁桑拿 billion.
Considering that the second half of the year is the low season for air-conditioning demand, 2H18 Hisense’s home air-conditioning business was interrupted 0.
5.5 billion US dollars, we expect the 2H19 home air conditioner business to expand each year.
It is estimated to be affected by emotions: 1) The intensified competition in household air conditioners has caused the company’s valuation to decline.
The relaxation of domestic air-conditioning competition will help the company estimate that it will return to normal.
2) The company’s main value is in the central air-conditioning business (contributing 65% of the company’s net profit in 2018).
The company consolidated Hisense Hitachi from September 30.
The central air-conditioning market benefited from the increase in the penetration rate of refined decoration houses, and the completion and delivery of real estate in 4Q19 accelerated.
It is estimated that the impact of the consolidation of Hisense Hitachi on the financial statements is not considered for the time being, and the 2019 / 20e EPS forecast is maintained at RMB 1.
16 yuan / 1.
Maintain Outperform rating on both A and H shares.
Taking into account the intensified price competition in the air-conditioning industry, the A-share target price is reduced by 14% to 13.
93 yuan, corresponding to 12x / 10x 2019 / 20e P / E, 35% more upside than currently expected; lower H-share target price by 14% to 9.
86 release, corresponding to 8x / 7x 2019 / 20e P / E, 35% more upside than before.
The current A-share contradiction corresponds to 9x / 7x 2019 / 2020e P / E.
The current H share corresponds to 6x / 5x 2019 / 2020e P / E.
Risks The risk of central air-conditioning being affected by the sales cycle of real estate; the competition in the home appliance market is exacerbated.
The president’s easy way to get rid of my bags
Bags under the eyes are puffy and sagging skin around the eyes. Its presence not only indicates the increase of age, aging, and affects the beauty. The following editors will introduce you a few ways to easily get rid of the bags under the eyes, hoping to helpyour turn.
1. The traditional saying of eye cream is that Meimei started to use eye bags after 25 years of age, but because of the irregular schedule of modern people, they should use eye cream in time as soon as they find problems with the skin on the eyes.
2. Winter melon slices Winter melon has the effect of diuretic and dampness, so winter melon itself still contains a relatively good effect of removing edema.
Applying melon slices around the eyes can eliminate puffiness.
3. Cold compress the spoon for fifteen minutes and remove it, and cover the eye area.
It can also be used as a quick eye cream.
4, Taomi Shui Taomi Shui I believe everyone knows that it contains rich rice nutrition, has a strong whitening and skin care effect, and can eliminate the problem of puffiness.
5. Honey Honey is rich in propolis. This ingredient enables us to supplement the skin with nutrients and make the skin look firmer and smoother.
6, eye massage with your ring finger in the middle of the eye belly 10 times before going to bed, press it 10 times, and persevere every night to alleviate the problem of eye swelling.
In your spare time, do more eye exercises, massage acupuncture points around the eyes, and increase the blood circulation to accelerate the blood cells around the eyes.
7, tea put a small cup of tea in the refrigerator for about 15 minutes, then use a small piece of cotton pad to soak in the tea, and then apply it on the eyelids, can remove the bags under the eyes, eliminate the degree of puffiness of the bags under the eyes.
8, diet usually eat some colloids, high-quality protein, animal liver and tomatoes, potatoes and other beauty foods.
Please pay attention to the balance, it can provide the necessary nutrients for the rejuvenation of this part of tissue cells, and it can also replace the lower eye bags.
Top 10 causes of women’s hair loss
Hair loss for women, especially long-haired women, can cause special horror, a lot of hair loss.
What causes women’s hair loss?
Find out the cause of your hair loss, and then make specific adjustments to your cause, in order to completely treat the hair loss and return your hair.
Too much or too little thyroid hormone produced by the thyroid can disrupt the hair growth cycle.
Hair loss is often not the only symptom of thyroid disease. It is usually accompanied by weight gain or loss, sensitivity to cold or heat, and heart rate changes.
Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.
Women with this disease have chronic imbalances in sex hormones, too much androgen, manifested as excessive hair on the face and body, and thinning hair.
Causes ovulation problems, acne and weight gain.
Sometimes thinning hair is the only symptom of the disease.
The body’s immune system mistakenly attacks healthy hair follicle cells, which can cause alopecia.
In most cases, hair will grow back in a period of six months to a year.
The disease is caused by fungi, and the pattern of hair loss is more typical-itching of the scalp, redness of the hair loss area, round, scalp scale.
The disease is contagious, so family members of the patient are also tested.
Some women have denser hair during pregnancy, thanks to changes in sex hormone levels, which can prolong hair survival.
But after childbirth, the levels of sex hormones return to normal, and those hair will change quickly, and this situation may take two years to recover.
One of the lesser known adulterations of birth control pills is hair loss.
Drugs that suppress ovulation can make hair thinner in some women, especially those with a family history of hair loss.
In addition, anticoagulant drugs, medications to treat high blood pressure, hypertension, rheumatism and depression can also cause hair loss.
If you lose weight quickly by dieting, hair loss is prone to occur.
Your diet returns to healthy levels and your hair grows back again.
Hair loss can also occur if you have too little protein or too much vitamin A in your diet.
Regardless of radiotherapy or chemotherapy, hair loss can result.
After the treatment is stopped, the hair will grow back.
Serious illness or major surgery, massive blood loss, extreme negative emotions, etc., will cause people to lose half or even all their hair, which may last 6?
The hair was too tight.
Many women find that hair loss can occur if the comb is fragile or the over-tightened pony tail is fragile and over-tightened hair bands are worn.
These improper hairdressing habits also easily leave scars on the scalp, leading to permanent hair loss.
Suggestions in the workplace
If you ask, do you like people who go straight or who are tortuous, you must like the former.
Yes, we all like straight friends in life, looking forward to each other straight, even with liver and gallbladder, but often we block the deep inside of each other-like to talk to each other without words, and hate each other’s mouth without cover, so, straightforward alsoWhen it really broke, look at the occasion.
From a psychological perspective, frankness is the most essential part of human nature.
People generally think that children are simple, they have not been polluted by the world, and they show natural truths everywhere. This is probably the so-called “naive”.
Their frankness is a true reflection of their nature, and their direct feelings about external things can be expressed through language without processing, and this direct expression is acceptable, which is the so-called “childlikeness.”
Unlike the frankness of children, the frankness of adults is often rarely accepted, because adults are sophisticated, and the expressions of adults are considered to be processed or even disguised.Frequently.
We do not rule out those who have honey and belly, but good intentions are regarded as donkey livers and lungs, but good wishes often do not yield good results, which is also a major pain in many adults.
Straightforward straightforward, you feel straightforward when you say it directly, but don’t forget that you are too straightforward and others are unhappy.
In interpersonal communication in the workplace, it is especially necessary to pay attention to the way of speaking. To be good at not being annoying, to do good things with good intentions must have a good result, and to give suggestions and opinions must pay attention to timing, methods and methods.
The vast majority of people are good-faced, especially those with an identity. They can observe the atmosphere of the scene, the emotions of the other party, and whether they are suitable for expressing their chests. Some opinions have come to an end, or they have been put on hold for a while.No, you don’t have to divide the levels immediately.
The ancients said that “sixty and pleasing to the ears” includes not only the imagination of the valley, but the reluctance to change the reluctance, but also the realm of concealment and moisturization.
Realizing this will help to achieve good results with a good intention.
What kind of mask is suitable for oily skin
Some eyebrow skins are oily, with too much oil, and the skin is very dark and yellow with no oily whiteness. For dull and yellow oily skin, if you want to improve it, you need to control the oil.At the same time whitening effect is achieved.
Do n’t worry about the eyebrows. The following natural whitening masks also have strong oil control effects. Apply them quickly.
1. Banana Oil Control Whitening Mask Banana is one of the most common fruits in life. Its vitamins and minerals, laxative, laxative, and detoxifying effects are very significant. Banana is one of the common raw materials for making natural skin care mask.
What kind of skin is suitable for banana mask?
Bananas can help the skin to suppress oil secretion, and at the same time brighten the complexion and drive away dullness. Therefore, oily skin with dark yellow skin is more suitable for applying a banana mask.
Peel the banana and mash it into mud. Use your fingers to dip an appropriate amount of banana puree and apply it to clean skin. After 20 minutes, apply a small amount of milk to your face. After 5 minutes, rinse with water.
Doing a banana mask twice a week can effectively exfoliate oily skin and make the skin whiter and smoother.
2, yogurt oil control whitening mask oily skin due to excessive secretion of oil, it is easy to grow acne, and yogurt has the effect of reducing acne, oil control, another significant skin care effect of yogurt is to whiten the skin, so the beauty canUse yogurt to control oil, acne, and whiten.
Prepare an appropriate amount of fresh yoghurt and clean the skin. Dip a small amount of yoghurt in the fingers and fingers. Wipe gently with your arms to absorb repeatedly. After fifteen minutes, wash it with warm water.
Yogurt mask twice a week is very effective for oily skin oil control and whitening.
3, red wine oil control whitening mask Your skin oil control and whitening is the biggest two points of care, you can choose red wine to help you.
Red wine contains very strong skin-care substances, which can effectively moisturize the skin, brighten the complexion, and inhibit the secretion of oil. Often, a wine mask is applied instead of the skin’s metabolism will be accelerated.
Prepare a small glass of red wine, a small amount of honey, mix the red wine and honey, stir well, soak the mask paper in it, after soaking, apply it on the clean skin surface, and massage gently. After 15 minutes, wash with warm waterclean.
Red wine with honey can enhance the moisturization of the mask.
It should be noted that this mask is not very suitable for MM whose skin is susceptible to alcohol.
4, milk oil control whitening mask milk is rich in whitening and pale skin, the significant skin care effect, then, is milk mask suitable for oily skin?
In fact, as long as the milk mask is used reasonably, it can also integrate whitening spots and control the refreshing effect of oil.
You need to mix milk with a small amount of baking soda to double the oil control and whitening effect.
Prepare an appropriate amount of fresh milk and a small amount of baking soda, mix the milk and baking soda thoroughly, stir well, make a mud, apply it on a clean skin surface, massage gently, and clean it with warm water after 15 minutes.
Milk with baking soda can effectively suppress oil secretion on the basis of whitening skin.