Europe, Britain, and Japan: Grey Rhino Is Approaching

Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” Is Approaching

Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” is approaching in the warning sound of as many as amazing woods, the first “Grey Rhino” in the financial market in 2019 is breaking free of London’s magnificent Westminster Parliament Building, Knocked over Britain and rushed to the EU.

  Thoroughly all signals in this world indicate that the Brexit agreement could not be voted in the House of Commons on the evening of January 15. For the Theresa May government, all the worst possibilities cannot be ruled out; for business and the market, waiting forHope is close to disillusionment, and can only bravely face the uncertainties and uncontrollable Brexit shocks.

  Chairman of the Global Internet Governance Council (GCIG), Swedish politician Carl Bildt (Carl Bildt) ridiculed Britain, which once led the world, “can’t even lead itself now,” but he acknowledged that the EU still has trouble-some peopleThe support of traditional mainstream political parties has decreased, and EU governance is becoming more and more challenging. What is more serious is that the economic growth of European countries seems to be just the opposite.

  The latest data released by the European Bureau of Statistics at 10:00 local time on January 14th surprisingly dropped the chin: industrial production in the euro zone fell sharply, and industrial production fell by 1 in November 2018.

7%, down by 3 per year.


This is the biggest drop in the data since February 2016 and worse than expected.

  On the same day, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also issued its latest assessment, warning that growth in most major economies is taking place.

In the next 6 to 9 months, the United States, Germany, Canada, Italy, and the euro area will increase the growth momentum, with France and the United Kingdom having the largest declines.

  Britain: The “bitter battle” of Brexit has not been achieved. Externally, it has been even considered that once the Brexit agreement is rejected, the most likely result will be a “hard Brexit” without agreement.

  Tuesday will be the most tense moment in British politics.

The opposition Labor ‘s current strategy is to seek compulsory elections, and if Labor wins, it will re-negotiate a new Brexit deal in Brussels.

Labour MPs have been told to be ready, and once Tuesday ‘s vote on the Brexit deal is rejected, party leader Jeremy Corbyn can immediately ask for a no-confidence vote on the prime minister.

  Political observers expect Labor to have a hard time winning, because if Teresa May ‘s Brexit deal is rejected, the ruling coalition ‘s DUP has said it will support the Conservatives to renegotiate the Brexit deal.

  If the vote passes, the DUP threatens to abandon a cooperation agreement with the government, causing the Conservatives to lose most of the parliament.

Another possibility is that if the Prime Minister’s high-level failure in the vote is caused by a large number of Conservative Party representatives, she may immediately face a conflict asking her to decline. If only a few members of the party vote against it, the most likely result is a re-antique ballot.

  From a firm Brexit point of view, no deal would give Britain a huge advantage-it would allow Britain to negotiate and sign trade agreements immediately outside Europe, while at the same time allowing the government to cut taxes to make Britain more competitiveforce.
  ”In the long run, the EU has far more problems on the horizon than we do,” said British columnist Quentin Letts. “Europe should worry more about its future.

“EU: There will be big changes in the year of the election. Unlike many outsiders predict, Brexit is not the biggest challenge facing the EU in 2019.

When temporarily asked about this at a forum, an anonymous EU diplomat ranked the immigration crisis first, Italy second, and third was Brexit.

The European Parliament elections in May are top priorities in Europe, and the number one factor in shaping the direction of elections is immigration.

  In most parts of Europe, restrictions on immigration have replaced the future occupation of the euro in the minds of most voters.

On the European continent, as many as one-quarter of voters now support populist parties, Europe suspects that sending unprecedented grounds is welcomed, and active populist party leaders are gearing up.

  The four-term Californian Prime Minister Orban Viktor and the Italian Prime Minister ‘s most sought-after Deputy Prime Minister, Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, previously announced a joint effort to build an anti-austerity and anti-immigrationThe populist coalition aims to seize at least a seat in the European Parliament in Europe.

  On Sunday, populist parties in France and Germany also launched their own candidates for European Parliament elections.

Marine Le Pen, a leader of the well-known populist party, renamed from the National Front, announced that the focus of this election was to defeat President Emmanuel Macron.

She believes that her party will benefit from the effect of the “Yellow Vest Movement” in its large interests.

  Dominique Moisi, a senior consultant at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, believes that part of the cause of the yellow vest movement was Macron’s fault.

He has been counting on stronger economic growth to justify him while undertaking radical but necessary reforms, but the growth has gradually come to fruition, which has made it impossible for middle- and lower-class people to accept ecologically justified fuel taxes.

  In order to save the hearts of the people, Macron issued an open letter on January 14 and launched a two-month “national debate” inviting citizens to express their opinions. The content of the debate includes: How much should be reduced?

Cut some spending as a priority?

How to make people more inclusive in managing the country?

“I intend to turn your anger into a solution.

“The French presidential election.

  But for the European Parliament elections with only four months left, all corrective measures are probably too late.

Zaki La, a professor of international relations at the Politecnico de Paris?

Di analysis believes that the European Parliament in the last general election was very close to being pushed by extremist parties (who won 46% of the votes). In the 2019 election, only 45% of the seats are expected to belong to the establishment.

  Japan: Japan-US negotiations and aging crisis Japanese Prime Minister Abe has just visited the UK last week, urging the British to avoid a no-deal Brexit.  Britain absorbed 40% of Japan’s accumulated investment in the EU.

About 1,000 Japanese companies operate in the UK and employ 150,000 people locally.

Traditionally, the UK has always been regarded as the main gateway for European companies by Japanese companies. Many Japanese companies have their European headquarters in the UK and are now stepping up their preparations for moving to the European continent.

  Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, applied for the establishment of a new subsidiary in Amsterdam as early as 2017, and has transferred its main corporate and retail banking operations to the Dutch capital.

Japanese companies that moved their headquarters to the Netherlands also include Panasonic, Nomura and Yamato Bank.

  Because of the uncertainty caused by Brexit, Hitachi is also considering cancelling a planned £ 16 billion nuclear power plant in Wales.

  Japan’s economic cooperation agreement (EPA) with the European Union will enter into force next month, making Japan’s economic ties with the European Union closer.

However, Japanese entrepreneurs worry that the new trade talks between Japan and the United States this year may fail, which will cause the government to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars and damage the country’s export-dependent economy.

  Depending on exports, it will be more difficult for governments in developing countries to increase domestic demand. In order to cope with the aging society, Japan ‘s established fiscal policy is to raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10%.

  Japan is the country with the highest proportion of the elderly aged 65 and over in the world, accounting for 20% of those aged 70 and above.

In 2018, the country’s population growth rate reached a record low, only 1.

43, far below the 2 needed to maintain the population.


  Japan’s current economic growth has continued for more 杭州夜生活网 than six years and is considered to be the second longest economic expansion cycle since World War II. The business community is not optimistic about whether this round of economic expansion can continue in 2019.

Beijing New Building Materials (000786): Completion improves, superimposed structure optimizes demand growth, and mid- to high-end product prices remain flat month-on-month

Beijing New Building Materials (000786): Completion improves, superimposed structure optimizes demand growth, and mid- to high-end product prices remain flat month-on-month

Investment Highlights: Event: Beijian Building Materials released the third quarter report for 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 98 in the first three quarters.

1.7 billion, an increase of 3 every year.

2%; net profit attributable to mothers is 10.84 million yuan, a decrease of 100 per year.

53%; net profit after deduction to mother 18.

42 trillion, down 7 a year.


Among them, non-recurring gains and losses, the US gypsum board matters settlement fees, lawyers’ fees and other costs totaled 19.

4 billion.

Single quarter revenue of 37 in the third quarter.

79 trillion, with an increase of 7.

21%, net profit attributable to mother 6.

810,000 yuan, down 8.

57%, net profit after deduction to mother 7.

44 trillion, down 0.


The company released a 19-year performance forecast, which is expected to achieve incremental net profit 3?

500 million, down 81 a year.

75% -87.

83%, preliminary estimates of net profit in Q4 20193.


61 ppm, an increase of -26 in ten years.



Opinion: The continued warming of completion has driven the growth rate of gypsum board demand in the third quarter, and we estimate that the overall growth rate of gypsum board sales of North Building Materials is 5%.

Middle-to-high-end demand for high-level composite structure upgrade, the overall price of Dragon and Taishan Gypsum remained flat, and the price of low-end products (Dream) improved.

In the third and third quarters alone, gross profit margin increased by 1.

2% to 36.

At 7%, we think it is mainly due to the increase in sales and cost.

It is worth noting that, thanks to the consumption upgrade and the improvement of brand awareness, Dragon brand sales continued to maintain a high growth (over 10%).

We believe that the continued recovery of subsequent completed projects will steadily increase the demand for gypsum boards. The differentiated brand competition model adopted by the company will also jointly promote the steady increase of city share and stable profitability.

杭州夜网论坛 The expense ratio during the single third quarter was 13.

1%, an increase of 2 per year.

89%, sales, management, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.

54, 0.

29, 0.
1 unit.

Selling expenses increased substantially by 171%, mainly due to the company and its subsidiaries’ transportation expenses, advertising and exhibition expenses increased, and the company’s greater emphasis on brand building and actively expanding B-side business.

Finance costs increase by 47 per year.
5%, mainly due to the increase in the company’s expense of additional expenses and increased exchange loss losses.

Investment suggestion: Main business of gypsum board: market share under high concentration will further increase space + products continue to be high-end 1)[amount: gradual and steady growth of the industry + 重庆耍耍网 company’s global production capacity layout + market share increase]The final gypsum board production capacity isAt 2.7 billion flats, we will continue to promote the layout of gypsum board capacity through overseas investment (global 5 billion gypsum board capacity plan).

The market share in 2018 is close to 60%. Through environmental protection to eliminate backward production capacity, the company integrates its production capacity, brand and marketing advantages, and the market share is expected to increase further.

2)[Price: enhanced pricing power + increased mid- to high-end share]The company focuses on brand building and actively expands mid-to-high-end customers. With consumption upgrades and customer brand awareness, the company’s mid-to-high-end product share will continue to increase steadily.

At the same time, the company seized the hardcover trend and accelerated the penetration of high-end products.

3)[Cost: Self-owned cover paper + advanced desulfurization gypsum layout + advanced technology, etc.]The company’s forward-looking desulfurization gypsum layout builds a moat, and the acquisition cost is low and stable; the own production capacity of the cover paper reduces paper price volatility.

Channels cooperate to expand the keel business and acquire Sichuan Shuyang to cut into the field of waterproofing, which further opens up room for growth.

The company vigorously promotes the sales of keel, strengthens the synergy with existing channels, and the revenue of 2019H will increase by more than 40%. The elimination of small keel factories through environmental protection, consumption upgrades and company channel expansion are expected to open a window of revenue growth.

As one of the company’s main development industries in the future, waterproof materials have broad industry demands and there is still room for expansion and concentration. For central enterprises with large cash flows, they can make a difference.

We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for the years 19, 20 and 21 will be 4.

28, 25.

7, 29.

900 million, PE is 74, 12, 11 times.

The company’s medium-term market share and pricing power upgrade trend remain unchanged. Brand building and product structure upgrades are expected. Demand growth potential still exists, maintaining the “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: the demand of downstream industries has fallen sharply; the price of gypsum board has fallen sharply; overseas expansion has fallen short of expectations; the development of keel business has fallen short of expectations; the development of the waterproofing sector has fallen short of expectations.

Praco (603566): Poultry seedlings are expected to continue high growth, optimistic about R & D and innovative enterprises

Praco (603566): Poultry seedlings are expected to continue high growth, optimistic about R & D and innovative enterprises

Brief evaluation of performance The company released the report for the third quarter of 2019, and the company achieved operating income in the first three quarters of 20194.

7.1 billion, an annual increase of 9.

28%; net profit attributable to mother is 0.

950,000 yuan, an increase of -20 in ten years.

17%; of which the net profit attributable to the mother in the third quarter was approximately 0.

300 million.

The business analysis was affected by the non-epidemic situation. The company ‘s poultry seedlings and chemical drugs grew rapidly, and pig seedlings declined. Under the influence of the epidemic, the company ‘s revenue was stable and increased.

28%, in terms of business, the revenue of poultry vaccines and antibodies in the first three quarters was 2.

11 million yuan, an increase of 38 in ten years.

17%, the revenue of the chemical medicine sector was 1.

590,000 yuan, an increase of 32 in ten years.

44%, technology license or transfer business income was 17.62 million yuan, an annual increase of 37.

01%, the income of pig vaccine was 7475.

460,000 yuan, an increase of -46 in ten years.

93%; the company achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.

950,000 yuan, an increase of -20 in ten years.

17%, deducting non-net profit increased by -19 in ten years.

60%, mainly due to the decline in sales of high-margin product pig vaccines affected by downstream demand. Secondly, the company expanded research and development technology cooperation, and the research and development costs 杭州桑拿 increased by 44.


Poultry seedling business is expected to continue high growth; benefiting from tight supply, the poultry industry has entered a boom cycle, and at the same time, the substitution effect brought by the non-plague epidemic has greatly lengthened the boom cycle; the company’s product upgrades are fast, the technology is advanced, and the core products are new.The new tributary genetically engineered seedlings ushered in high sales growth, followed by abundant product reserves. A series of genetically engineered products such as chicken Newcastle disease (genotype) and chicken infectious rhinitis are expected to be approved for marketing in the next few years, and continue to be maintained in the poultry market.Directional lead.

Optimistic about the company’s high R & D investment for multi-product conversion: The company is one of the few companies with independent R & D capabilities in the veterinary drug industry. The company’s R & D investment accounted for 14 in the first half of 2019.

21%, ranking first in the industry; in the third quarter, the company newly obtained a number of new veterinary medicine certificates for swine vaccines: the first domestic swine circovirus type 2 and Haemophilus parasuis inactivated vaccine (SH strain +4 type)JS strain + ZJ strain 5), the first domestic one-shot aqueous adjuvant vaccine Mycoplasma hyopneumoniae pneumoniae inactivated vaccine (HN0613 strain), swine atrophic rhinitis inactivated vaccine (HN8 strain + rPMT-N protein + rPMT-C protein), Breakthrough in research and development capabilities, the company currently uses its advanced genetically engineered vaccine research and development technology platform to fully support the development of non-pest vaccine, and is expected to expand its wide product matrix through its research and development platform in the future.

Investment suggestion: The company has high R & D investment + multi-product layout. The EPS for 2019-2021 is 0.



61 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 45/38/33 times, given a “buy” rating.

Risks suggest fluctuations in the downstream aquaculture industry, risks of epidemics, risks of new product sales falling short of expectations and increased market competition, risks of changes in government bidding and procurement policies, and risks of brain drain.

Zhongtai Securities-Short-term evasion in two areas with limited index adjustment (with gold shares)

Zhongtai Securities: Short-term evasion in two areas with limited index adjustment (with gold shares)

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  Sources of Zhongtai Securities ‘February industry views and key recommended targets: Zhongtai Securities’ February configuration view: Fearless impact, calmly review: Our view in January is that the wind is continuing, and we should follow the trend and think that the market will continue in DecemberThe return of risk appetite. In January, the market performance was extremely differentiated. Technology and hardware, new energy, and media sectors continued to be strong and strong. The market hotspots concentrated on a small number of stocks. In the last few trading days before the holiday, the Wuhan pneumonia epidemicAs a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by more than half of its gains since the current rebound and fell below 3000 points again. Correlative industries such as tourism, catering, media, and transportation dropped the most, while pharmaceuticals, technology, and banks were relatively resilient.

Our January gold stocks portfolio recorded a 7.

81% increase, clearly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index10.

08%, since the establishment of the China-Thailand gold stocks portfolio in February 2017, the portfolio has gradually gained 90%.

02%, the excess return relative to CSI 300 is 71.

84% of the better performing gold stocks in January was Jacques Technology (43.

88%), Yi Jiahe (21.

38%), Zhifei creatures (20.

00%) and so on.

  The epidemic is still continuing, and short-term shocks are inevitable, but the index adjustment space is limited.

At present, the most eye-catching market focus is the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Too many people compare it with SARS in 2003. We believe that the current market structure, variable status, and macroeconomic and policy environment mean that the mean is clearly SARS.The industry performance during the SARS period is of little significance in the current market, but the real guiding significance is the emotional response characteristics of the global capital markets during the fermentation of the epidemic.

In fact, after all the tail risks occur, the real impact on the market is very short-lived. Emotional venting can often be completed within a few trading days, and the core variable that subsequently affects the market is whether the event will significantly affect future profits.Expect whether it will completely destroy the operating logic before the market.

And experience tells us that the logic of megatrend upwards is often not reversed by short-term factors.

Recently, the World Health Organization and the World Health Organization have listed the new coronavirus epidemic as an international public health emergency. We believe that although the terms such as delivery and trade restrictions are better than market expectations, the epidemic ‘s impact on the domestic economyThe impact will eventually be inevitable, and the gradual hedging demand may not be fully reflected.

According to our questionnaire, most investors believe that the maximum impact of the epidemic on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index after the holiday is between -5% and -10%. We believe that the actual adjustment of the index may be smaller, and we should be more optimistic in the short term.Be more cautious in the medium and long term.

After the adjustment of the first few trading days of the festival, the current median PE estimate of the entire market is 27 times, which is already in the bottom of history, and the market’s most pessimistic end of the year, the estimated level is also about 24 times.Look, we think that the probability of a large-scale adjustment of the index is small, and the risk of individual stocks should be paid more attention to.

  In terms of configuration in February, it is recommended to avoid short-term risks and focus more on long-term logic.

There are two main concerns in the short-term market. One is the change in the epidemic situation, such as the growth rate of newly diagnosed cases; the other is the policy hedging tool, when it will be introduced, and how much effort will be made.

For the former, experts have different views, and according to the estimated inflection point of the epidemic, we recommend to pay attention to two aspects, one is to avoid short-term emotional trading risks, and the other is to observe the mid- and long-term impact of the epidemic on macroeconomics and corporate profits,The hedging effort on the policy side.

In the short term, we recommend focusing on avoiding two aspects. The first is the stocks that have been most affected by the epidemic, such as the sectors that have suffered short-term consumption shocks (catering, tourism, transportation, film and television, retail, etc.), listed companies in Hubei Province, etc.It is the proportion of financing purchases and stocks with relatively high equity pledges. Leveraged funds often represent the highest risk appetite in the market. If the market panic degree exceeds expectations, this type of target risk is the largest.

Correspondingly, you can temporarily pay attention to thematic investment opportunities that benefit from the fermentation of the epidemic, such as companies that produce masks, medical supplies, antiviral drugs and other products, as well as non-contact business models such as gaming, online consumption, and remote collaboration.

From the perspective of defense, you can appropriately lean towards high dividends and quarterly results.

In the medium and long term, the epidemic may produce 南宁桑拿 some more far-reaching enlightenment on a large scale. First, awareness of health will be improved from top to bottom. Second, the lifestyle and social system brought about by epidemic prevention and control.The re-understanding of China’s economy will also become the epitome of China’s economic transformation.

Overall, no matter when the epidemic is over, no matter when policy breakouts occur, industry trends in the fields of hard technology, new energy and new consumption will continue. We maintain our judgment that the A-share market ‘s industry-driven strength is stronger than the macro-driven nature in 2020., It is recommended to actively grasp the buying opportunities brought by short-term adjustments.

  February Gold Shares Portfolio: From top to bottom, combined with our monthly portfolio of various industries,上海夜网论坛 the February 2019 recommendations of Zhongtai Securities’ gold shares are as follows: Wanfu Bio, China Merchants Bank, Vanke A, Shandong Gold, Jebsen Stock, Jiuyuan Yinhai, Tenglong, Liande Equipment, AVIC, GEM 50ETF.

  Risk reminder: monthly research opinions and key recommendation targets are based on the judgment of the fundamentals and profitability of each industry group in the next month. The final recommendation of each industry has its economic and policy formulation. There may be economic and policy expectations that are absolutely absolute.Case.

Fuyao Glass (600660) Semi-annual Report Comment: Overseas Revenue Proportion Increases the Power of Aluminum Trim Business

Fuyao Glass (600660) Semi-annual Report Comment: Overseas Revenue Proportion Increases the Power of Aluminum Trim Business
Key points of investment: The company announced its 2019 semi-annual report and achieved operating income of 102 in 1H19.900 million, an annual increase of 2.0%; net profit attributable to mother 15.1ppm, a ten-year increase of -19.4%; budget benefit 0.6 yuan. Ping An’s view: Due to the downward impact of the domestic automobile market, the company’s gross profit margin has improved: affected by changes in the sales volume of the Chinese automobile market, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin for its main business in the first half of 2019 was 37.2%, a decrease of 4 per year.Five averages, net profit attributable to mother is 15.1 ‰, a decrease of 19 per year.4%, 14 after recovering exchange gains.7 ‰, a decrease of 18 per year.4%.Auto glass operating income 92.1 ‰, the average ten years.9%, gross margin is 34.5%, down by 1 every year.23 units.Float glass gross margin is 34.6%, sixth grade.5 single; the cost of float glass has increased in ten years.8%, it may be due to the increase in inventory at the end of 2018, leading to a decrease in output in the first half of 2019.It is expected that the automobile industry may pick up in the second half of the year, which will improve the company’s profitability. The product structure is upgraded, and the advantages are expected to continue: the company’s proportion of high value-added products such as heat insulation, sound insulation, head-up display and resurfacing continues to increase, an increase of 1 compared with the same period in 2018.The 67 singles continue to develop through the trend of automotive glass integration, and the company’s proportion of high value-added products continues to increase. Overseas business is progressing steadily, and the US factory is developing rapidly: the company’s overseas business accounted for 48 in the first half of 2019.26%, an increase of 9 per year.61 units.US factory revenue was 19.100 million, an increase of 13 in ten years.7%, net profit is 14.800 million, increasing by 16 杭州桑拿网 every year.4%.Fuyao supplies US brands such as GM and Ford outside the United States, and has also entered the supply chain systems of Japanese brands such as Toyota and Honda. It will gradually increase its revenue scale and market share in the future. The aluminum trim business has begun to exert its strength: in the first half of 2019, other business income was 700 million, compared with 0 in the same period in 2018.700 million U.S. dollars, with an estimated 700 million U.S. dollars in China Aluminum Trim ‘s revenue of about 600 million U.S. dollars, reflecting the performance of Fuyao ‘s integration of SAM. In the future, it will further integrate the resources of Sanfeng Group and Tongliao Fine Aluminum to improve the industrial chain and enable the aluminum trim businessBecome a new growth point for the company. Earnings forecasts and investment advice.Based on the Chinese automotive glass business, the company copied its core advantages to overseas markets and the new automotive aluminum trim field. It is optimistic about increasing its market share in the United States. It is recommended to pay attention to the business progress of aluminum trim.Maintaining the performance forecast, it is expected that the net profit attributable to mothers for 2019-2021 will be 36.700 million, 43.9 ppm and 47.500 million, corresponding to 15 respectively.5, 13.0 and 12.0 times, maintaining the “recommended” level. Risk warning: 1) The growth rate of the automobile industry is lower than expected: If the sales volume of the automobile industry continues to decline, it will affect the company’s profitability.2) Exchange rate fluctuations: The company has more than 40% of its revenue from overseas, and exchange rate fluctuations will have a transmission effect on the company’s profits.3) Price fluctuations of upstream raw materials: The main raw materials of automobile glass such as soda ash, PVB, etc., if the price rises, it will put pressure on the company’s costs.4) Sino-US trade war: Automotive glass belongs to the 250 billion tax increase list. If the Sino-US trade war continues or intensifies, it will affect the company’s profitability.5) Aluminum bar penetration rate is lower than expected: If the cost reduction of aluminum bar is small and the penetration rate in the luxury car segment is lower than expected, it will affect the company’s operating income.

Plum Bio (600873): The monosodium glutamate industry is still bottoming out

Plum Bio (600873): The monosodium glutamate industry is still bottoming out

Investment Highlights: The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20198.

55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

twenty three%.

The company announced that it achieved revenue of 108 in the first three quarters of 2019.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

15%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

23%; EPS0 achieved.

28 yuan / share.

Among them, 3Q2019 achieved revenue of 38.

22 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.

88%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

910,000 yuan, an average of 26 in ten years.


The MSG industry is still booming, and the price spread has increased significantly over the years.

According to the price data of Zhuo Chuang Information we track, the average MSG price of the company’s main products in the first three quarters of 2019 was 8,508 yuan / ton, an increase of 15% over the same period of last year, 7,392 yuan / ton; the average price difference was 4,817 yuan / ton,Significant quarterly growth of 25%.

The reported company’s umami (glutamic acid, sodium glutamate, nucleotides) gradually realized operating income44.

8.9 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of total revenue.


The amino acid industry is still at the bottom.

In total, the price gap between the company ‘s main products, lysine and threonine, 北京夜网 is still falling, and the industry is still in the process of bottoming out.

According to the price data of Zhuochuang Information we tracked, the average sales price of lysine in the first three quarters of 2019 was 7213 yuan / ton, which replaced 13% compared with the same period of the previous year; the average price of lysine sales price was 2292 yuan / ton, which was higher thanThe annual interest rate is 36%.

During the same period, the average selling price of threonine was 7,517 yuan / ton, which was an alternating 17% year-on-year; the average selling price was 1,366 yuan / ton, 56% year-on-year.

The gross profit margin increased, and the expense ratio decreased slightly during the period.

Affected by the drop in amino acid prices, the company’s reported gross profit margin may be 23.

43%, compared with the 南京夜网 same period last year 1.

15 units.

During the same period, period expenses were 13.

77%, a slight decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

6 units.

The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are 7 respectively.

75%, 3.

89% and 2.

12%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

02 averages, down by 0.

14 averages and a decrease of 0.

49 units.

Profit forecast and estimation interval.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

39, 0.

44, 0.

54 yuan / share, combined with estimates from comparable companies, prudently give 15-18 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.


02 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating.

risk warning.

The price of MSG dropped, the price of amino acids continued to drop, and the operating rate of lysine dropped.

Jidong Cement (000401): 19Q1 performance turned losses to record strongest history or to open a 2 year high boom

Jidong Cement (000401): 19Q1 performance turned losses to record strongest history or to open a 2 year high boom

Event: Jidong Cement released the first quarter notice on April 9. It is expected that the company will earn 40-50 million yuan in the first quarter of 2019, which will distort losses many times (the first quarter of 2018: after the reorganization).

800 million).

  The strong cement business drove the best historical record in the first quarter, exceeding market expectations.

The company achieved the best first quarter performance in history, and because the North China cement industry is usually in an alternating state in the first quarter, the company’s first quarter performance in 2019 exceeded market expectations, and even slightly exceeded our expectations.

The strong performance of the cement business is preliminary to the company’s performance exceeding expectations.

The company’s sales of cement clinker in the first quarter were around 1415, an increase of 32 each year.

9%, we estimate that the gross profit per ton is about 115 yuan, at least about 40 yuan / ton. The recovery of cement demand in North China since 2018Q4 is the company’s strong performance in the cement business.In the quarter, the growth rate of cement enterprises in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region increased by more than 20%).

  Tangshan’s production limit exceeded expectations, or will help the company reach a record high in the second quarter of 2019: The Tangshan government requires 16 local production lines to suspend production for at least 15 days in April, exceeding market expectations. According to our calculations, the suspension of production capacity accounts for the total of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Production capacity 20.

4%, divided into the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region to reduce output in April by about 10%.

As the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market is currently in its peak season (the rate of increase is 80-90%, significantly higher than the same period last year) and the inventory is low (Beijing-Tianjin-Tangtang enterprise inventory is 30-50%), we believe that this production restriction will greatly improve Beijing-Tianjin-HebeiThe local supply and demand relationship, throughout April, cement prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are on an upward trend, and last week’s price increase of 20 yuan / ton for large enterprises is only the beginning of an upward trend.

At the same time, considering the improvement of supply and demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the revitalization of the company’s cement assets in Inner Mongolia (the Hohhot cement price has increased by 30-60 yuan / ton last week) and the current high price basis, we believe the company’s second-quarter 2019 performance is expected to hitNew record high.

  The initial high business climate is expected to be maintained, with high performance elasticity and 四川逍遥网 limited risks: Considering: 1) the recovery of demand in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, 2) the production capacity of small enterprises has been fully released, and prices continue to rise, the supply space is also quite limited and 3)Environmental protection and production restriction will remain strict in general. We believe that the high prosperity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will be maintained and the core benefits of the company.

According to our calculations, for every 10 yuan / ton increase in purity in North China, the net profit attributable to the parent increases by 3.

27 ppm (12%), the performance elasticity contribution exceeds the non-core areas, so we believe that even if the company’s non-core area price profit exceeds our expectations, the company’s performance growth trend will not change.

If we take into account the improvement in operating efficiency after the company’s merger with Jinyu, the proportion of space for performance growth; investment recommendations: temporarily maintain the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/202027.

4 ppm / 29.

20,000 yuan with a target price of 24.

4 yuan, and maintain “Buy” rating.

In the last two years of the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan”, due to the reversal of the boom caused by the project rush, Jidong may start a two-year high boom. After the company reveals more data, we will update it further.

  Risk warning: demand is lower than expected, costs rise more than expected, and production restrictions are loosened.

Zhou Laojiao (000568) 2019 Interim Report Review: Growing, Brand Rejuvenation Steady Progress

Zhou Laojiao (000568) 2019 Interim Report Review: Growing, Brand Rejuvenation Steady Progress

Event: Luzhou Laojiao released its 2019 Interim Report, and the company achieved a total operating income of 80 in 2019H1.

1.3 billion, an annual increase of 24.

81%; net profit attributable to parent company27.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.


Among them, the total operating income of 2019Q2 was 38.

4.4 billion, an increase of 26 in ten years.

01%; realized net profit attributable to parent company 12.

35 ppm, an increase of 35 per year.


Mid-to-high-end liquors are making great efforts, and revenue growth has both speed and quality: the company’s revenue in Q2 2019 increased by 10 years.

01%, a slight acceleration from 2019Q1.

In terms of product structure, 2019H1 premium wines have achieved 43.

13 ppm, an increase of 30 in ten years.

47%, mainly due to the volume and price of Guojiao 1573 series.

In terms of price, the ex-factory price of Guojiao 1573 has been gradually increased from 740 yuan to 790 yuan (excluding unplanned prices after August 20) since 2019, which is expected to contribute a high number of revenue growth; in terms of sales, Guojiao 1573 is expectedIt grows about 20% annually.

2019H1 mid-range wine achieved income of 22.

24 ppm, an increase of 35 in ten years.

14%, mainly due to the increase in the volume and price of the special song series. Since 2019, the special song series has directly increased the ex-factory price of the old-fashioned products and the release of the tenth-generation new version of the product, achieving a sustained increase in the average factory price;Low-end alcoholic beverages achieved revenue13.

8.4 billion, an annual increase of 0.


At the end of the first half of 2019, the company’s advance accounts reached 13.

92 ppm, an increase of 2 per year and a month-on-month increase.

9.8 billion and 1.

0.6 billion.

At the same time, the cash received from sales of goods and labor services reached 81.

5.2 billion, an annual increase of more than 32%, and the net cash flow from operating activities reached 17.

07 billion, an annual increase of nearly 1.3 billion, showing a good quality of growth.

The gross profit margin has increased significantly, and the profitability has accelerated: the non-net interest rate deducted for 2019Q2 was 31.

68%, an increase of one year.

With 67 averages, the improvement in gross profit margin is the main contributor to profitability improvement.

The overall gross margin level in 2019Q2 was 8天津夜网0.

3%, a significant increase of 5 per year.

One single, the ex-factory price rise of main products such as the National Reserve 1573 and the contraction of channel discounts are the leaders in the improvement of gross profit margin.

Expenses for the period of 2019Q2 25.

69%, an increase of 1 per year.

53 units, of which 21 are sales expenses.
67%, a significant increase every year 2.
The 72 budgets are expected to be related to a series of brand building activities such as the company putting more expenses into tastings this year.

Earnings forecast and estimation: The company’s first-half performance is in line with expectations. It is expected that the State Reserve 1573 will continue to benefit from the expansion of sales volume of high-end liquor prices and the rising prices of Feitian Maotai and Puwu.

Slightly 佛山桑拿网 raised EPS forecasts for 2019-21 to 3.



97 yuan (previous 3).



93 yuan), an increase of 34 each year.

6% / 26.

34% / 22.


The current PE corresponding to 2019-21 is 28x / 22x / 18x respectively, maintaining the “Buy” rating.

Risk warning: economic fluctuations affect demand for high-end liquor; food safety incidents, etc.

GEM refers to the intraday reversal of the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.

4 trillion yuan


GEM refers to the intraday reversal of the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.

4 trillion yuan

For stocks, please read Jin Qilin analyst research report, authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, to help you tap potential potential opportunities!

  GEM refers to the intraday reversal of the turnover of the two cities exceeded 1.

4 trillion yuan reporter Qu Hongyan ○ editor Sun Fang Although the European and American stock markets suffered heavy losses overnight, the A-share market may be full yesterday.

In particular, the GEM index experienced a major reversal within the day. It once fell more than 4% in early trading, then rose strongly, and finally closed up 1.


Analysts believe that the technology companies in the A shares are in a bull market, and the best companies are expected to achieve profitability and sustained and sustained growth.

However, for some companies with insufficient technology, if they can’t achieve sustained profit growth, they will eventually return to the original point.

  The rising market sentiment caused the GEM index to achieve a major reversal yesterday.

At the same time, the 南宁桑拿 decline in the Shanghai Index has also narrowed significantly.

Yesterday morning, the A-shares were dragged down by the external market. The Shanghai Index once fell by nearly 3%, and the GEM index fell by more than 4%.

However, after 11 o’clock, the market bottomed out and rebounded, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes went out of a V-shaped reversal.

Finally closed yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3013.

05 points, down 0.

60%; SZSE Component Index closed at 11,856.

08 points, up 0.

71%; GEM index closed at 2287.

31 points, up 1.


  Yesterday, the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.

4 trillion yuan.

Along with the stock index shock, the turnover has been enlarged simultaneously, and it shows that the market is active, which also shows that the fund acceptance capacity has been significantly enhanced.

So far, the turnover of A shares has exceeded RMB 1 trillion for five consecutive trading days.

  From the perspective of the plate, the concepts of driverless, masks, and graphite rubber rose the most, while traditional core asset stocks such as utilities, coal and petroleum, insurance banks, and liquors fell the most.

Small and medium-sized stocks rose sharply. The daily limit of about 140 stocks yesterday, some of which have risen more than 50% this month, such as Aotea, Zhaochi, Zhaoyi Innovation, Hailu Heavy Industry, etc.

  Analysts believe that there are many reasons why A-shares can get out of the relatively independent market: first, the economies of developing countries are large enough, and policy space is large; second, the overall estimate of A-shares is still at historically low levels; and third, the adjustment of the structure of household asset allocationBring sufficient incremental funds to the market.

  Some professionals have gradually improved, especially the growth of the GEM, and believe that the bull market has begun.

Xia Haizhou, an associate professor at the School of Economics of Zhejiang University, said in an interview with reporters: “The technology companies in A shares are indeed in a round of bull market, which can be called ‘structural technology bull market’.

“Xia Haizhou believes that the driving force of this round of technology stock bull market is economic transformation, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to the economy has continued to rise, and the application of the Internet, AI and 5G communication technologies has promoted the development of related industries.

At the same time, the adjustment of the structure of household asset allocation has brought funds to the market, which is also an important reason for market growth.

  But investors should also be rational.

Xia Haizhou said that behind the 10-year bull market in the US stock market is the growing profitability and business income of listed companies, and believes that the best domestic technology companies can also achieve this goal.

But for other companies with insufficient technology, if they can’t achieve the increase in revenue and performance, they will gradually return to the inevitable.

  Shanxi Securities analysis believes that in the short term, the loose tone of market liquidity will not change, and the growth style will continue to dominate.

After the previous rise, the estimates of technology-related growth stocks will be pushed to a relatively high level in history, and they will face some adjustment pressure in the short term, and the trend may be divergent.

Initially, the impact of the epidemic on market sentiment has weakened significantly. At the same time, with the resumption of work and production acceleration and the counter-cyclical adjustment policy gradually taking effect, the logic of fundamental recovery will also translate into market value.

Jiuyang Shares (002242): Revenue growth continues to rise and the expense ratio effectively improves

Jiuyang Shares (002242): Revenue growth continues to rise and the expense ratio effectively improves

The company recently released its semi-annual report for 2019.

9 ppm / +15.

0%, net profit attributable to mother 4.

1 ppm / + 9.

7%, deducting non-net profit attributable to the mother 3.

8 ppm / + 29.

1%, 0 for basic budget.

53 yuan, relying on product, channel and marketing efforts, the company’s revenue growth quickly led the industry, profitability is stable and better.

In the first half of the year, the company’s revenue growth quickly led the industry, and continued to show a rising trend.

According to the overall data released by Aowei Cloud, the retail sales of the small home appliance industry in 2019H1 will further increase2.

7%, industry demand is limited.

Jiuyang led the industry in revenue growth in the first half of the year, and the growth rate showed an upward trend. The growth rates of 18H1 to 19H1 were +11.

3%, +13.

8% and +15.

0%, 19Q1 and 19Q2 growth rates were +14.

7% and +15.


In terms of different products, the retail sales of industrial pots, presses, beans, raw materials, squeezes, and water increased by +6 respectively.

6%, +0

9%, -13.

9%, +12.

4%, -11.

8% and +1.

7%, the company’s food processor, nutrition cooker, Western-style electrical appliances revenue growth rate was +16.

6%, +18

9% and +16.

5%, the average industry is obvious.

The company’s rapid revenue growth mainly benefited from favorable channel adjustments and product structure upgrades. In the first half of the year, three new soymilk machines were launched, the world’s first non-hand washing and breaking machine Y88, and uncoated steam rice cooker S5.

In the first half of the year, the beneficiary product structure was upgraded, and the gross profit margin of domestic business rose.

The company’s gross profit margin for 2019H1 decreased slightly by zero in ten years.


To 32.


In terms of different markets, in domestic business, the market is sluggish, and the average price of the industry has generally fallen. Only in the online market, the average price of soybean milk machines has increased.

The company’s beneficiary products have been upgraded, and the gross domestic profit margin in 2019H1 has increased1.


To 34.

In terms of overseas business, the company’s overseas gross profit margin for 2019H1 dropped by 7.

To 10.

6%, which is expected to be affected by the changing nature of foundry SharkNinja products and international trade.

In terms of products, the company’s food processing machines grow by 2 per year.


Under the product upgrade, the gross profit margin has reached the highest level in the same period in recent years; the nutrition pot has decreased by 4.


, Is expected to be related to the increase in foundry business; Western-style electrical appliances decline by 0 every year.


, Still at a relatively high level in recent years.

In the first half of the year, the sales expense ratio improved more than expected, and the non-net profit margin attributable to mothers improved slightly.

The company’s 2019H1 sales expense ratio is 14.

8% /-2.


, The main beneficiary channel, after sales and advertising costs are reduced by 0 every year.

500 million US dollars, actually better than expected; management expense ratio 3.

8% / + 0.杭州桑拿


, Mainly due to increased wages and travel costs; development costs decreased 3.

4% / + 0.

1 page

; Finance costs expense -0.

1% /-0.

1 page

Although the sales expense ratio improved significantly, the investment income for the period decreased by 0 due to the dividends from the sale of subsidiaries and associates in the same period last year.

90,000 yuan, the net profit margin of the company’s return to mother in 2019H1 dropped 0.


To 9.


Regardless of the impact of non-recurring gains and losses, the non-net profit rate of the company’s deduction from motherhood in 2019H1 increased by 1.


To 9.


Profit forecast and investment suggestions: innovative products + three-dimensional channels + value marketing. The company’s recent business continues to improve.

At the same time, the company continues the tradition of high dividends and plans to pay cash in the first half of the year3.

800 million, the dividend rate in the first half of the year was nearly 95%.

We are optimistic about the company’s development, and it is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.

09, 1.
23 and 1.

39 yuan, the closing price on August 14 corresponding to PE were 19.

3, 17

2 and 15.

2 times.
Risk reminder: intensified market competition, high selling expenses, and drastic changes in industry demand

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