Beijing New Building Materials (000786): Completion improves, superimposed structure optimizes demand growth, and mid- to high-end product prices remain flat month-on-month
Investment Highlights: Event: Beijian Building Materials released the third quarter report for 2019, and the company achieved revenue of 98 in the first three quarters.
1.7 billion, an increase of 3 every year.
2%; net profit attributable to mothers is 10.84 million yuan, a decrease of 100 per year.
53%; net profit after deduction to mother 18.
42 trillion, down 7 a year.
Among them, non-recurring gains and losses, the US gypsum board matters settlement fees, lawyers’ fees and other costs totaled 19.
Single quarter revenue of 37 in the third quarter.
79 trillion, with an increase of 7.
21%, net profit attributable to mother 6.
810,000 yuan, down 8.
57%, net profit after deduction to mother 7.
44 trillion, down 0.
The company released a 19-year performance forecast, which is expected to achieve incremental net profit 3?
500 million, down 81 a year.
83%, preliminary estimates of net profit in Q4 20193.
61 ppm, an increase of -26 in ten years.
Opinion: The continued warming of completion has driven the growth rate of gypsum board demand in the third quarter, and we estimate that the overall growth rate of gypsum board sales of North Building Materials is 5%.
Middle-to-high-end demand for high-level composite structure upgrade, the overall price of Dragon and Taishan Gypsum remained flat, and the price of low-end products (Dream) improved.
In the third and third quarters alone, gross profit margin increased by 1.
2% to 36.
At 7%, we think it is mainly due to the increase in sales and cost.
It is worth noting that, thanks to the consumption upgrade and the improvement of brand awareness, Dragon brand sales continued to maintain a high growth (over 10%).
We believe that the continued recovery of subsequent completed projects will steadily increase the demand for gypsum boards. The differentiated brand competition model adopted by the company will also jointly promote the steady increase of city share and stable profitability.
杭州夜网论坛 The expense ratio during the single third quarter was 13.
1%, an increase of 2 per year.
89%, sales, management, and financial expense ratios increased by 3.
Selling expenses increased substantially by 171%, mainly due to the company and its subsidiaries’ transportation expenses, advertising and exhibition expenses increased, and the company’s greater emphasis on brand building and actively expanding B-side business.
Finance costs increase by 47 per year.
5%, mainly due to the increase in the company’s expense of additional expenses and increased exchange loss losses.
Investment suggestion: Main business of gypsum board: market share under high concentration will further increase space + products continue to be high-end 1)[amount: gradual and steady growth of the industry + 重庆耍耍网 company’s global production capacity layout + market share increase]The final gypsum board production capacity isAt 2.7 billion flats, we will continue to promote the layout of gypsum board capacity through overseas investment (global 5 billion gypsum board capacity plan).
The market share in 2018 is close to 60%. Through environmental protection to eliminate backward production capacity, the company integrates its production capacity, brand and marketing advantages, and the market share is expected to increase further.
2)[Price: enhanced pricing power + increased mid- to high-end share]The company focuses on brand building and actively expands mid-to-high-end customers. With consumption upgrades and customer brand awareness, the company’s mid-to-high-end product share will continue to increase steadily.
At the same time, the company seized the hardcover trend and accelerated the penetration of high-end products.
3)[Cost: Self-owned cover paper + advanced desulfurization gypsum layout + advanced technology, etc.]The company’s forward-looking desulfurization gypsum layout builds a moat, and the acquisition cost is low and stable; the own production capacity of the cover paper reduces paper price volatility.
Channels cooperate to expand the keel business and acquire Sichuan Shuyang to cut into the field of waterproofing, which further opens up room for growth.
The company vigorously promotes the sales of keel, strengthens the synergy with existing channels, and the revenue of 2019H will increase by more than 40%. The elimination of small keel factories through environmental protection, consumption upgrades and company channel expansion are expected to open a window of revenue growth.
As one of the company’s main development industries in the future, waterproof materials have broad industry demands and there is still room for expansion and concentration. For central enterprises with large cash flows, they can make a difference.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother for the years 19, 20 and 21 will be 4.
900 million, PE is 74, 12, 11 times.
The company’s medium-term market share and pricing power upgrade trend remain unchanged. Brand building and product structure upgrades are expected. Demand growth potential still exists, maintaining the “overweight” rating.
Risk warning: the demand of downstream industries has fallen sharply; the price of gypsum board has fallen sharply; overseas expansion has fallen short of expectations; the development of keel business has fallen short of expectations; the development of the waterproofing sector has fallen short of expectations.