Zhongtai Securities: Short-term evasion in two areas with limited index adjustment (with gold shares)
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Sources of Zhongtai Securities ‘February industry views and key recommended targets: Zhongtai Securities’ February configuration view: Fearless impact, calmly review: Our view in January is that the wind is continuing, and we should follow the trend and think that the market will continue in DecemberThe return of risk appetite. In January, the market performance was extremely differentiated. Technology and hardware, new energy, and media sectors continued to be strong and strong. The market hotspots concentrated on a small number of stocks. In the last few trading days before the holiday, the Wuhan pneumonia epidemicAs a result, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell by more than half of its gains since the current rebound and fell below 3000 points again. Correlative industries such as tourism, catering, media, and transportation dropped the most, while pharmaceuticals, technology, and banks were relatively resilient.
Our January gold stocks portfolio recorded a 7.
81% increase, clearly outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index10.
08%, since the establishment of the China-Thailand gold stocks portfolio in February 2017, the portfolio has gradually gained 90%.
02%, the excess return relative to CSI 300 is 71.
84% of the better performing gold stocks in January was Jacques Technology (43.
88%), Yi Jiahe (21.
38%), Zhifei creatures (20.
00%) and so on.
The epidemic is still continuing, and short-term shocks are inevitable, but the index adjustment space is limited.
At present, the most eye-catching market focus is the new coronary pneumonia epidemic. Too many people compare it with SARS in 2003. We believe that the current market structure, variable status, and macroeconomic and policy environment mean that the mean is clearly SARS.The industry performance during the SARS period is of little significance in the current market, but the real guiding significance is the emotional response characteristics of the global capital markets during the fermentation of the epidemic.
In fact, after all the tail risks occur, the real impact on the market is very short-lived. Emotional venting can often be completed within a few trading days, and the core variable that subsequently affects the market is whether the event will significantly affect future profits.Expect whether it will completely destroy the operating logic before the market.
And experience tells us that the logic of megatrend upwards is often not reversed by short-term factors.
Recently, the World Health Organization and the World Health Organization have listed the new coronavirus epidemic as an international public health emergency. We believe that although the terms such as delivery and trade restrictions are better than market expectations, the epidemic ‘s impact on the domestic economyThe impact will eventually be inevitable, and the gradual hedging demand may not be fully reflected.
According to our questionnaire, most investors believe that the maximum impact of the epidemic on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index after the holiday is between -5% and -10%. We believe that the actual adjustment of the index may be smaller, and we should be more optimistic in the short term.Be more cautious in the medium and long term.
After the adjustment of the first few trading days of the festival, the current median PE estimate of the entire market is 27 times, which is already in the bottom of history, and the market’s most pessimistic end of the year, the estimated level is also about 24 times.Look, we think that the probability of a large-scale adjustment of the index is small, and the risk of individual stocks should be paid more attention to.
In terms of configuration in February, it is recommended to avoid short-term risks and focus more on long-term logic.
There are two main concerns in the short-term market. One is the change in the epidemic situation, such as the growth rate of newly diagnosed cases; the other is the policy hedging tool, when it will be introduced, and how much effort will be made.
For the former, experts have different views, and according to the estimated inflection point of the epidemic, we recommend to pay attention to two aspects, one is to avoid short-term emotional trading risks, and the other is to observe the mid- and long-term impact of the epidemic on macroeconomics and corporate profits,The hedging effort on the policy side.
In the short term, we recommend focusing on avoiding two aspects. The first is the stocks that have been most affected by the epidemic, such as the sectors that have suffered short-term consumption shocks (catering, tourism, transportation, film and television, retail, etc.), listed companies in Hubei Province, etc.It is the proportion of financing purchases and stocks with relatively high equity pledges. Leveraged funds often represent the highest risk appetite in the market. If the market panic degree exceeds expectations, this type of target risk is the largest.
Correspondingly, you can temporarily pay attention to thematic investment opportunities that benefit from the fermentation of the epidemic, such as companies that produce masks, medical supplies, antiviral drugs and other products, as well as non-contact business models such as gaming, online consumption, and remote collaboration.
From the perspective of defense, you can appropriately lean towards high dividends and quarterly results.
In the medium and long term, the epidemic may produce 南宁桑拿 some more far-reaching enlightenment on a large scale. First, awareness of health will be improved from top to bottom. Second, the lifestyle and social system brought about by epidemic prevention and control.The re-understanding of China’s economy will also become the epitome of China’s economic transformation.
Overall, no matter when the epidemic is over, no matter when policy breakouts occur, industry trends in the fields of hard technology, new energy and new consumption will continue. We maintain our judgment that the A-share market ‘s industry-driven strength is stronger than the macro-driven nature in 2020., It is recommended to actively grasp the buying opportunities brought by short-term adjustments.
February Gold Shares Portfolio: From top to bottom, combined with our monthly portfolio of various industries,上海夜网论坛 the February 2019 recommendations of Zhongtai Securities’ gold shares are as follows: Wanfu Bio, China Merchants Bank, Vanke A, Shandong Gold, Jebsen Stock, Jiuyuan Yinhai, Tenglong, Liande Equipment, AVIC, GEM 50ETF.
Risk reminder: monthly research opinions and key recommendation targets are based on the judgment of the fundamentals and profitability of each industry group in the next month. The final recommendation of each industry has its economic and policy formulation. There may be economic and policy expectations that are absolutely absolute.Case.