Plum Bio (600873): The monosodium glutamate industry is still bottoming out

Investment Highlights: The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first three quarters of 20198.

55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

twenty three%.

The company announced that it achieved revenue of 108 in the first three quarters of 2019.

30,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.

15%; net profit attributable to mother 8.

55 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.

23%; EPS0 achieved.

28 yuan / share.

Among them, 3Q2019 achieved revenue of 38.

22 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.

88%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

910,000 yuan, an average of 26 in ten years.

49%.

The MSG industry is still booming, and the price spread has increased significantly over the years.

According to the price data of Zhuo Chuang Information we track, the average MSG price of the company’s main products in the first three quarters of 2019 was 8,508 yuan / ton, an increase of 15% over the same period of last year, 7,392 yuan / ton; the average price difference was 4,817 yuan / ton,Significant quarterly growth of 25%.

The reported company’s umami (glutamic acid, sodium glutamate, nucleotides) gradually realized operating income44.

8.9 billion yuan, accounting for 41% of total revenue.

55%.

The amino acid industry is still at the bottom.

In total, the price gap between the company ‘s main products, lysine and threonine, 北京夜网 is still falling, and the industry is still in the process of bottoming out.

According to the price data of Zhuochuang Information we tracked, the average sales price of lysine in the first three quarters of 2019 was 7213 yuan / ton, which replaced 13% compared with the same period of the previous year; the average price of lysine sales price was 2292 yuan / ton, which was higher thanThe annual interest rate is 36%.

During the same period, the average selling price of threonine was 7,517 yuan / ton, which was an alternating 17% year-on-year; the average selling price was 1,366 yuan / ton, 56% year-on-year.

The gross profit margin increased, and the expense ratio decreased slightly during the period.

Affected by the drop in amino acid prices, the company’s reported gross profit margin may be 23.

43%, compared with the 南京夜网 same period last year 1.

15 units.

During the same period, period expenses were 13.

77%, a slight decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.

6 units.

The sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are 7 respectively.

75%, 3.

89% and 2.

12%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.

02 averages, down by 0.

14 averages and a decrease of 0.

49 units.

Profit forecast and estimation interval.We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 0.

39, 0.

44, 0.

54 yuan / share, combined with estimates from comparable companies, prudently give 15-18 times PE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 5.

85-7.

02 yuan, maintaining the sustainable market rating.

risk warning.

The price of MSG dropped, the price of amino acids continued to drop, and the operating rate of lysine dropped.