Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” Is Approaching
Europe, Britain, and Japan: “Grey Rhino” is approaching in the warning sound of as many as amazing woods, the first “Grey Rhino” in the financial market in 2019 is breaking free of London’s magnificent Westminster Parliament Building, Knocked over Britain and rushed to the EU.
Thoroughly all signals in this world indicate that the Brexit agreement could not be voted in the House of Commons on the evening of January 15. For the Theresa May government, all the worst possibilities cannot be ruled out; for business and the market, waiting forHope is close to disillusionment, and can only bravely face the uncertainties and uncontrollable Brexit shocks.
Chairman of the Global Internet Governance Council (GCIG), Swedish politician Carl Bildt (Carl Bildt) ridiculed Britain, which once led the world, “can’t even lead itself now,” but he acknowledged that the EU still has trouble-some peopleThe support of traditional mainstream political parties has decreased, and EU governance is becoming more and more challenging. What is more serious is that the economic growth of European countries seems to be just the opposite.
The latest data released by the European Bureau of Statistics at 10:00 local time on January 14th surprisingly dropped the chin: industrial production in the euro zone fell sharply, and industrial production fell by 1 in November 2018.
7%, down by 3 per year.
This is the biggest drop in the data since February 2016 and worse than expected.
On the same day, the Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) also issued its latest assessment, warning that growth in most major economies is taking place.
In the next 6 to 9 months, the United States, Germany, Canada, Italy, and the euro area will increase the growth momentum, with France and the United Kingdom having the largest declines.
Britain: The “bitter battle” of Brexit has not been achieved. Externally, it has been even considered that once the Brexit agreement is rejected, the most likely result will be a “hard Brexit” without agreement.
Tuesday will be the most tense moment in British politics.
The opposition Labor ‘s current strategy is to seek compulsory elections, and if Labor wins, it will re-negotiate a new Brexit deal in Brussels.
Labour MPs have been told to be ready, and once Tuesday ‘s vote on the Brexit deal is rejected, party leader Jeremy Corbyn can immediately ask for a no-confidence vote on the prime minister.
Political observers expect Labor to have a hard time winning, because if Teresa May ‘s Brexit deal is rejected, the ruling coalition ‘s DUP has said it will support the Conservatives to renegotiate the Brexit deal.
If the vote passes, the DUP threatens to abandon a cooperation agreement with the government, causing the Conservatives to lose most of the parliament.
Another possibility is that if the Prime Minister’s high-level failure in the vote is caused by a large number of Conservative Party representatives, she may immediately face a conflict asking her to decline. If only a few members of the party vote against it, the most likely result is a re-antique ballot.
From a firm Brexit point of view, no deal would give Britain a huge advantage-it would allow Britain to negotiate and sign trade agreements immediately outside Europe, while at the same time allowing the government to cut taxes to make Britain more competitiveforce.
”In the long run, the EU has far more problems on the horizon than we do,” said British columnist Quentin Letts. “Europe should worry more about its future.
“EU: There will be big changes in the year of the election. Unlike many outsiders predict, Brexit is not the biggest challenge facing the EU in 2019.
When temporarily asked about this at a forum, an anonymous EU diplomat ranked the immigration crisis first, Italy second, and third was Brexit.
The European Parliament elections in May are top priorities in Europe, and the number one factor in shaping the direction of elections is immigration.
In most parts of Europe, restrictions on immigration have replaced the future occupation of the euro in the minds of most voters.
On the European continent, as many as one-quarter of voters now support populist parties, Europe suspects that sending unprecedented grounds is welcomed, and active populist party leaders are gearing up.
The four-term Californian Prime Minister Orban Viktor and the Italian Prime Minister ‘s most sought-after Deputy Prime Minister, Interior Minister Matteo Salvini, previously announced a joint effort to build an anti-austerity and anti-immigrationThe populist coalition aims to seize at least a seat in the European Parliament in Europe.
On Sunday, populist parties in France and Germany also launched their own candidates for European Parliament elections.
Marine Le Pen, a leader of the well-known populist party, renamed from the National Front, announced that the focus of this election was to defeat President Emmanuel Macron.
She believes that her party will benefit from the effect of the “Yellow Vest Movement” in its large interests.
Dominique Moisi, a senior consultant at the Montaigne Institute in Paris, believes that part of the cause of the yellow vest movement was Macron’s fault.
He has been counting on stronger economic growth to justify him while undertaking radical but necessary reforms, but the growth has gradually come to fruition, which has made it impossible for middle- and lower-class people to accept ecologically justified fuel taxes.
In order to save the hearts of the people, Macron issued an open letter on January 14 and launched a two-month “national debate” inviting citizens to express their opinions. The content of the debate includes: How much should be reduced?
Cut some spending as a priority?
How to make people more inclusive in managing the country?
“I intend to turn your anger into a solution.
“The French presidential election.
But for the European Parliament elections with only four months left, all corrective measures are probably too late.
Zaki La, a professor of international relations at the Politecnico de Paris?
Di analysis believes that the European Parliament in the last general election was very close to being pushed by extremist parties (who won 46% of the votes). In the 2019 election, only 45% of the seats are expected to belong to the establishment.
Japan: Japan-US negotiations and aging crisis Japanese Prime Minister Abe has just visited the UK last week, urging the British to avoid a no-deal Brexit. Britain absorbed 40% of Japan’s accumulated investment in the EU.
About 1,000 Japanese companies operate in the UK and employ 150,000 people locally.
Traditionally, the UK has always been regarded as the main gateway for European companies by Japanese companies. Many Japanese companies have their European headquarters in the UK and are now stepping up their preparations for moving to the European continent.
Japan’s largest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, applied for the establishment of a new subsidiary in Amsterdam as early as 2017, and has transferred its main corporate and retail banking operations to the Dutch capital.
Japanese companies that moved their headquarters to the Netherlands also include Panasonic, Nomura and Yamato Bank.
Because of the uncertainty caused by Brexit, Hitachi is also considering cancelling a planned ￡ 16 billion nuclear power plant in Wales.
Japan’s economic cooperation agreement (EPA) with the European Union will enter into force next month, making Japan’s economic ties with the European Union closer.
However, Japanese entrepreneurs worry that the new trade talks between Japan and the United States this year may fail, which will cause the government to impose high tariffs on Japanese cars and damage the country’s export-dependent economy.
Depending on exports, it will be more difficult for governments in developing countries to increase domestic demand. In order to cope with the aging society, Japan ‘s established fiscal policy is to raise the consumption tax from 8% to 10%.
Japan is the country with the highest proportion of the elderly aged 65 and over in the world, accounting for 20% of those aged 70 and above.
In 2018, the country’s population growth rate reached a record low, only 1.
43, far below the 2 needed to maintain the population.
Japan’s current economic growth has continued for more 杭州夜生活网 than six years and is considered to be the second longest economic expansion cycle since World War II. The business community is not optimistic about whether this round of economic expansion can continue in 2019.